James Maslanik - US grants

This project will attempt to quantify the effects of variations in the major ice-atmosphere energy budget terms on the arctic sea ice concentration and distribution. Observational studies have shown the existence of a variety of interrelationships between the atmosphere and the sea ice, but modeling studies are required to identify and quantify forcing mechanisms, directions of operation, and the sensitivity of the interactions to changes in the state of the ocean and the atmosphere. Specifically, this project will make use of a ten-year data set to construct forcing functions for a coupled sea ice-radiative transfer model. Sensitivity studies will be conducted to identify specific climatically interesting regions, to determine if intense short- term events affect the long-term sea ice state, and to define the overall limits of the arctic climate system.

Increased concern about global environmental change has focused attention on the need to identify critical variables that can be used to monitor shifts in the world's climate and other physical conditions. Among the variables that scientists believe will provide accurate, easily updated indices of changing conditions are measurements of the extent and duration of seasonal snow cover and of the amounts of ice within glaciers and ice caps. This project will gather data on these variables from a number of published sources in both the U.S. and U.S.S.R. Remotely sensed data also will be gathered. Preliminary analyses will be undertaken to ascertain how these cryospheric variables correlate with other climatic, topographic, and land-characteristic variables. This research will be conducted collaboratively between scientists at the University of Colorado-Boulder and the Institute of Geography of the Academy of Sciences of the U.S.S.R. This project will bring together data about snow cover and glacial fluctuations in addition to other related variables. These data will provide valuable new information with which to test hypotheses about the degree to which cryospheric variables may be used as indices of global environmental change. The project also will provide tests of new means of gathering data using remote sensors, and it will foster greater collaboration between American and Soviet scientists with common research interests.

9320938 Curry This project is an integrated experimental and modeling effort to understand and interpret the evolution of sea ice characteristics, cloud properties, and radiation fluxes during the autumnal freezing of the coastal waters of the Beaufort Sea. It will carried out in the scientific context of the Beaufort and Arctic Seas Experiment (BASE), a Canadian program whose objective is an improved understanding of weather systems in the Canadian Arctic, and whose focus is the hydrologic balance of the Mackenzie River. This project will make use of the NCAR C-130 aircraft, and BASE will provide substantial synergistic observational facilities. The direct aircraft observations will be supplemented by satellite data to extend the time and space scales of the analyses, and will be used to interpret and validate satellite retrieval algorithms. A three-dimensional mesoscale model of the atmosphere will be used to interpret the temporal and spatial evolution of the sea ice cover and the atmospheric boundary layer characteristics. A coupled sea ice model will be used to interpret the physical processes of the sea ice that respond to atmospheric forcing. The result of the research will be an improved understanding of the atmospheric modulation of the surface radiation balance and the effect of the radiation balance on the freezing of coastal waters. ***

9423506 This project is an enhancement to the treatment of sea ice in a comprehensive numerical environmental model -- the Global Environmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems (GENESIS) model -- being developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The enhancements will include a more physically representative surface albedo, turbulent fluxes of heat from leads and other openings in the ice, and the shear strength of the sea ice cover. An additional goal of the project is to investigate the effects of some approximations used in the GENESIS model that have not been adequately studied, and which may be the source of seasonally anomalous distributions of ice. These include the treatment of ice deformation as a cavitating fluid and the assumption of a linear thickness distribution. The output of the enhanced GENESIS model will be tested and validated with a stand- alone sea ice model and with existing arctic surface data. ***

ABSTRACT: 9504201 Serreze Research supported by this grant is under the auspices of the Arctic Systems Science (ARCSS) Global Change Research Program and is jointly sponsored by the Division of Ocean Sciences and the Office of Polar Programs. Work to be performed represents prelim- inary steps towards a major 5-year research project named SHEBA, which is envisioned to study the heat budget of the Arctic Ocean and its impact on global change. The primary goals of SHEBA are: (1) to develop, test and implement models of arctic ocean- atmosphere-ice processes that demonstrably improve simulations of the present day arctic climate, including its variability, using General Circulation Models (GCMs), and (2) to improve the interpre- tation of satellite remote sensing data in the Arctic for analysis of the arctic climate system and provide reliable data for model input, model validation and climate monitoring. In order to place the field experiment phase of SHEBA at the best location, the climatological regime of the proposed site must be analyzed. Researchers at the University of Colorado will compile existing data on sea ice and atmospheric conditions in the region and publish the results on CD ROM about one year before final planning of the site location. Other researchers in the SHEBA project are expected to use the data to plan individual experiments on heat budget measurements. ??

ABSTRACT OPP-9701523 OPP-9701880 BROOKS, STEVEN MASLANIK, JAMES NATIONAL OCEANIC AND UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION This research project is a key component of a large, coordinated, multi-investigator program, Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) Ocean. The research program will be conducted for 14 months from a ship frozen into the ice pack. These investigators will utilize measurements of the flux of heat from different surface ice conditions of the permanent ice cap of the Arctic Ocean. Their results will help determine how atmospheric and oceanic heating is coupled to adsorption of heat by the ice. These measurements are critical to understanding how heat is reflected or absorbed by the sea ice as it melts in the summer and thickens in the winter in response to seasonal variations in climate. The measurements of surface ice conditions will be incorporated into a modeling program that makes an essential contribution to the measurements and modeling by the SHEBA team of researchers. This project will be integral to the full SHEBA measurement program of atmospheric and oceanic variables conducted with a large array of instruments on the ice floe and aircraft flying above as well as ice and ocean property measurements made on and below the ice floe. The combined set of measurements and sea ice models in SHEBA will allow refinement of climate models for the Arctic region. Those improved models will lead to better predictions of the climate and the permanence of the Arctic ice cap under a proposed global warming that could occur if atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are increased above present levels.

ABSTRACT OPP-9703127 CURRY, JUDITH UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO This research project is a key component of a large, coordinated, multi-investigator program, Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) Ocean. The research program will be conducted for 14 months from a ship frozen into the ice pack. These investigators will measure atmospheric conditions of the permanent ice cap of the Arctic Ocean from a scientifically instrumented C-130 aircraft during the Spring and Fall in conjunction with a NASA research program jointly conducted at the site. These researchers will determine the flux of incoming heat radiating onto the ice floe as a function of changing cloud conditions. Their results will help determine how atmospheric heating is coupled to adsorption of heat by the ice. These measurements are critical to understanding how heat is reflected or absorbed by the ice as it melts in the summer and thickens in the winter in response to seasonal variations in climate. The aircraft measurement program makes an essential contribution to the SHEBA team of researchers who will measure atmospheric variables with a large array of instruments on the ice floe and aircraft flying above as well as ice and ocean property measurements made on and below the ice floe. The combined set of measurements in SHEBA will allow refinement of climate models for the Arctic region. Those improved models will lead to better predictions of the climate and the permanence of the Arctic ice cap under a proposed global warming that could occur if atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are increased above present levels.

The project will develop an Arctic-capable aerosonde, design an instrument package for it, field test the instruments, and collect data in the Barrow, AK vicinity. The aerosonde is an autonomous aircraft that that builds on a design of a smaller platform that has flown in the Arctic. The improved aerosonde will be more robust and have increased navigational as well scientific instrumentation than its predecessor. The improved aerosonde will be able to fly over land and sea ice in order to make measurements of surface and near-surface properties that play a role in redistribution of heat in climate feedback systems. The remotely operated aerosonde also allows measurements to be made without the need of humans entering a very dangerous environment, particularly during the most hazardous time of the year. The aeorsonde will add an important access capability to Arctic research for a wide variety of atmospheric and surface properties studies.

Climate in northern regions is expected to change dramatically in the coming decades. Climate research has developed tools to predict long-range change and to evaluate the uncertainty in these predictions. It is possible that these research products could potentially play a role in regional and local decision making. However, communities may have alternate approches to dealing with climate events and climate change, approaches that may not link to predicitive research products. This Small Grant for Exploratory Research would conduct interviews and small conferences with residents of the Alaskan North Slope communities. These gatherings will be used (1) to evaluate the understanding by individuals within these communities about climate events, (2) to determine what policies or actions they take to adapt to or mitigate climate events, and (3) to examine whether their culture institutions can incorporate predictive research products.

The research project examines ways to utilize climate information gained by the scientific community in conjunction with the traditional knowledge held by people native to the Arctic as a determinate for making decisions in response to changing climate conditions in the far north. A range of scenarios for changing climate conditions such as decreased sea ice, changing frequency of extreme weather events, storm surges, and other environmental factors will be used to predict the probability of variable environmental conditions that could lead to decisions in the local communities about management of resources, marine transportation options, and coastal construction. Local stakeholder groups will be used to identify how socioeconomic decision-making might be done in response to various probabilities for changing climate on a variety of time scales. An interdisciplinary education project will integrate natural and social sciences with specific application to arctic climate and socioeconomic issues. The project will contribute to the Human dimensions of the Arctic system (HARC) initiative of the Arctic System Science Program.

This project will build a comprehensive model to simulate interactions between energy, water, and carbon dioxide using data collected from tundra regions in northern Alaska. The model will be used to examine the role of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in an area that is predicted to be the first to feel the greatest effects of global warming. The project will utilize satellite images and data, data collected from recent field programs, and output from other models of the individual environmental components. The project will develop a regional simulation of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and address the questions of energy and water balance in the Arctic system. The research will identify critical gaps in the understanding of climate-sensitive variables in the Arctic terrestrial ecosystem as well as the exchange of carbon dioxide with the atmosphere. Therefore, the project will be an important contribution to understanding the biocomplexity of the environment in an area undergoing rapid climate change at present.

This projects will create and release of three suites of spatial data products. The first is high-resolution, orthorectified radar imagery (ORRI, with 1.25 m grid cell spacing) and a co-registered, high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM; 5 m grid cell spacing; 1 m vertical accuracy). The second suite is satellite imagery purchased through AeroMap U.S., specifically orthorectified panchromatic (0.7 m grid cells) and multispectral (2.8 m grid cells) imagery acquired by DigitalGlobe with the new QuickBird satellite. Third is a time-series set of orthorectified air-photo mosaics. After processing, the DEM and imagery would be made available to all NSF-funded researchers through the ARCSS Data Coordination Center.

In the vicinity of Barrow, Alaska including the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) there are more than 35 currently funded NSF research projects. These multi- and interdisciplinary studies primarily address local to global effects of environmental sensitivity and climate change. Many of the projects utilize quantitative spatial analysis through remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Others would utilize high-resolution spatial datasets if they were available. On a project by project basis, research groups work piecemeal with spatial data for their own, small, disconnected field areas. Sharing datasets is difficult due to differences in map projection, datum, data format, extent, and distribution channels. This new activity will provide the research community high-resolution data and images resulting in tangible scientific benefits across numerous disciplines, increasing the efficiency and significance of current and future research.

On-going projects that would benefit are research on ecosystem dynamics, terrestrial-atmospheric fluxes of greenhouse gases, landscape dynamics, coastal flooding and erosion, permafrost melting, other environmental responses to unprecedented arctic warming, and other topics. These environmentally and societally relevant scientific problems can be addressed in new ways and with greater success using digital topography and imagery. By orders of magnitude, the spatial datasets would be more precise, accurate, and useful than existing data layers. They would permit state-of-the-art analysis for years to come, and would establish a temporal baseline for decades of change-detection studies. This vision is shared by this proposal's twelve collaborators from eight research institutions. With shared needs for high quality spatial information, a modest effort now would leverage results and promote interdisciplinary collaboration.

Inuit and Inupiat hunters in the North American Arctic rely on sea ice for travel and hunting for much of the year. Their use of the ice requires detailed knowledge of ice conditions for both safety and success in hunting, their main livelihood. The sea-ice environment in the Arctic is changing, however. Studies of sea-ice characteristics from scientific and indigenous knowledge perspectives have found major changes in the extent and thickness of the Arctic ice pack as well as local and regional changes in certain characteristics like the thickness, stability, and dates of formation of the shorefast ice used by hunters. As a result, Inuit and Inupiat communities are making changes to their day-to-day and long-term livelihood strategies and are dealing with traditional knowledge and skills that are, at times, no longer applicable. At the same time, scientists struggle to understand the interactions of the forces influencing sea-ice changes and variations of change at multiple scales. How can these two groups inform each other and benefit from collaboration on this topic of mutual concern? This project will investigate the dynamics of the coupled systems of Inuit and Inupiat hunters and shorefast or drifting sea ice in the context of environmental change. A multidisciplinary team of investigators will collaborate with the communities of Barrow, Alaska, and Clyde River, Nunavut, to carry out this investigation. The main objectives of the project are (1) to document Inuit and Inupiat knowledge and use of sea ice along with those factors that limit or enable this use, (2) to document Inuit and Inupiat observations and perspectives on sea-ice changes and correlate these with scientific observations, (3) to examine the differences and similarities in sea-ice changes and community interactions with them in the Baffin Bay and Chukchi Sea locales, and (4) to document how Inuit and Inupiat cope with changes in sea ice in their respective regions as well as how different approaches in one region may inform the other regarding adaptation strategies.

Anticipated intellectual contributions of this project include illumination of frameworks for integrating scientific and indigenous knowledge, particularly the integration of traditional and scientific views of ice conditions and the comparison of large-scale trends with local changes in sea ice. Anticipated broader impacts of this project include training and education of indigenous Arctic communities, scientists and graduate students in practical and theoretical studies of environmental changes and their consequences. The project also is expected to contribute important information to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) program of the Arctic Council and to the 2005 report on Climate Impact Assessments of Working Group 3 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2003 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

Funds are provided for the development, testing, and deployment of a low-cost laser profiling system that can be operated onboard small unpiloted aerial vehicles (UAVs), and that is capable of serving as a component of a widely distributed and long-term monitoring and observation program, such as may be established for the International Polar Year. As part of this development, data analyses sufficient to test the ability to extract basic sea-ice parameters, such as roughness and freeboard, from laser profiles flown over the Arctic sea ice near Barrow, Alaska will be included. Using basic analysis techniques such as comparisons of roughness with other data sets (MODIS ice products and satellite SAR and scatterometer imagery), these data should suffice to yield substantial insights into variations in ice conditions. While the focus of this effort is on improved understanding of sea ice, the proposed laser profiling system and analysis techniques are applicable to many other research uses, e.g. mapping changes in ice sheets and glaciers, vegetation canopy studies, monitoring shoreline change, and surveying ocean wave heights.

Maslanik 0712950
University of Colorado

Funds are provided to examine over 30 years of landfast ice records,
cyclone tracks and intensity along with frequency and timing of coastal high wind
conditions, nearshore pack ice drift, and coastal weather observations in two
representative arctic coastal regions. The focus of the project is to examine the relevant processes driving landfast ice responses to storm-produced coastal environmental change. To understand the physics that drive the dynamic and thermodynamic processes of landfast ice, existing coastal observations and numerical modeling will be included in a detailed process analysis.

The principal investigators will merge their various data sets and knowledge to address the following questions: (1) How do changes in the storm climate affect the coastal air temperatures and wind conditions? (2) How does landfast ice, including its stability and grounding patterns, respond to coastal winds and storm activity as well as nearshore ice motion and coastal currents? (3) What are the physical connections among those factors determining long-term variations of fast ice extent and duration? (4) What impacts on landfast ice are likely under a scenario of increased storm activity?

Landfast ice is a small fraction of the total ice cover of the Arctic Ocean, yet it is of extreme importance to the indigenous polpulation's way of life. It protects the beach from erosion during extended periods of time; it provides a surface over which to travel between villages by snowmobile and sled; it is the surface from which much subsistence hunting (seal, walrus, whale) takes place. Understanding how it is and will change has importance for day-to-day safety, as well as strategic management.

Antarctic polynyas are the ice free zones often persisting in continental sea ice. Characterization of the lower atmosphere properties, air-sea surface heat fluxes and corresponding ocean depth profiles of Antarctic polynyas, especially during strong wind events, is needed for a more detailed understanding of the role of polynya in the production of latent-heat type sea ice and the formation, through brine rejection, of dense ocean bottom waters.

Broader impacts: A key technological innovation, the use of instrumented uninhabited aircraft systems (UAS), will be employed to enable the persistent and safe observation of the interaction of light and strong katabatic wind fields with the Terra Nova Bay (Victoria Land, Antarctica) polynya waters during late winter and early summer time frames. The use of UAS observational platforms on the continent to date has to date been modest, but demonstration of their versatility and effectiveness in surveying and observing mode is a welcome development. The projects use of UAS platforms by University of Colorado and LDEO (Columbia) researchers is both high risk, and potentially transformative for the systematic data measurement tasks that many Antarctic science applications increasingly require.