Barry Raymond Sinervo, PhD - US grants

The great British ornithologist David Lack proposed a hypothesis to explain the evolution of the number and the size of eggs laid in a clutch by a female bird. He proposed that evolution will favor females that lay intermediate sized eggs and clutches. Females that lay many small eggs will start with more offspring, but these offspring will be small and may have a low chance of survival. Females that lay few large eggs increase survival chances of their offspring, but start with fewer of them. Thus females that lay an intermediate number and size of eggs are likely to have the most surviving offspring. The investigators have developed the first experimental test of Lack's Hypothesis as it applies to egg size in lizards. They will release hatchlings from clutches with large versus small eggs, and then monitor their survivorship and age to first reproduction. Using novel techniques, they can produce "giant" and "miniaturized" hatchlings that enable them to control hatchling size independent of genotype. Thus, they will determine actual patterns of selection on egg size. These studies not only test a fundamental issue in evolutionary ecology, but also have important practical implications as well. Captive breeding programs (salmon, trout, sea turtles) have ignored the importance of egg size on future survivorship. These experiments will show whether that is wise and whether those breeding protocols require revision.

9307999 Sinervo An increase of energy invested in current reproduction is thought to entail :costs" that are either reflected in a decrease in survival or a decrease in future reproductive success. We have devised an experimental test of these ideas in a natural population of lizards. By experimentally enhancing the number of eggs in a clutch using a hormonal treatment, we should exacerbate those costs and decrease survival or future reproductive success. A complementary manipulation that decreases the number of eggs laid in each clutch should ameliorate these costs and enhance survival or future reproductive success. Because the hormones that control reproduction are relatively conserved among vertebrates (e.g., reptiles, mammals, birds, fish), our results are likely to be quite general. Consequently, these results will be relevant to domestic animal husbandry (e.g. aquaculture, bird rearing, etc.) and these results could theoretically be used to maximize yield in such agricultural programs.***

Character displacement describes an ecological pattern where populations of competing species, morphologically similar when occurring in separate habitats, diverge morphologically when occurring in the same habitat. Few studies have experimentally tested the character displacement hypothesis. This project provides a test of a prediction of the character displacement hypothesis by measuring natural selection arising from ecological processes involved in competitive interactions. The investigators will use natural arenas to measure natural selection on body size in two co-occurring lizard species. Transplant experiments will be performed that involve populations of these species that occur in the same and separate habitats. Tests of ecological mechanisms, such as prey size distributions and micro-habitat partitioning, will be integrated with the transplant experiments. Understanding the heritable basis of important traits like body size and growth rate in free-ranging animals is profoundly important for many husbandry programs. This project will contribute to our understanding of the amount of heritable variation in body size in natural populations and how this variation is shaped by natural selection. Results of this project are applicable to husbandry programs that involve two or more species such as aquaculture programs, or free-ranging domesticated programs where some selection might be expected to occur.

9615335 RIESEBERG One of the most exciting recent advances in biology has been the ability to generate detailed genetic maps for almost any plant or animal species. These maps not only are essential for isolating genes of interest, but they also can be used to study important questions in population biology such as how new species are formed. However, mapping data sets are very large and complex, and the current theoretical and analytical tools for exploring them are inadequate. The purpose of this grant is to develop and apply a new theoretical approach called the "method of junctions" to the analysis and interpretation of these complex data sets. Specifically, this method will be applied to mapping data sets derived from hybrids between wild sunflower species of the genus Helianthus. Problems that will be addressed include determining exactly what genetic changes are necessary for new species to be formed and estimating how rapidly this process might take place. Although this proposal will rely on mapping data sets generated for wild sunflower species, the analytical methods developed here should be broadly applicable to any data set that involves genetic mapping data. Some theoretical and practical issues that these methods may affect range from understanding how genes interact with other genes to determining the most effective strategies for moving genes of agronomic importance from wild plants into related cultivated species.

Sinervo 9702033 Adaptive phenotypic plasticity is fundamentally a developmental phenomenon; expression of developmental pathways is modified in response to environmental cues, generating continuous trait variation or discrete, alternative morphologies. Understanding the proximate developmental basis of such plasticity can reveal much about the general role of development in evolution. Experimental manipulation of four species of spadefoot toad tadpoles will be used to investigate the proximate developmental basis underlying the production of a derived, inducible larval morphology. When typical, omnivorous larvae of some species in this clade consume prey high in thyroid hormone (TH), they may undergo transition to an adaptive, carnivorous tadpole. Manipulating TH levels in larvae from these species tests hypotheses addressing the role of TH in inducing the alternative morph. Similar manipulations of larvae from species that do not naturally become carnivorous tests hypotheses addressing how environmental factors (diet high in TH) may have perturbed development in the common ancestor, initiating evolution of the fully adapted plastic response seen today in the more derived species. Such an integrative approach may elucidate how proximate developmental mechanisms influence the route by which novel traits are produced, predisposing the production of certain phenotypes and influencing the path of evolutionary change.

Studies of female preference in the wild.
Barry R. Sinervo and Ryan Calsbeek

Females should be selective in their choice of mate, since females typically invest more in the production and/or care of offspring than do males. When there are a limited number of females available for mating, males should vie for access to females. Though abundant evidence supports the notion that female choice can profoundly affect the evolution of natural populations, there is little agreement regarding the mechanisms by which females benefit from mating selectively. Females may choose mates for direct benefits (territory quality, parental care, nuptial gifts), and/or indirect benefits (the contribution of good genes by the male).
The relative importance of direct and indirect benefits will be tested in the side-blotched lizard, Uta stansburiana. In this lizard, males set up territories that vary greatly in the availability of thermal resources. Normally, males that control the best territory also are of large size for the following reason. Thermal resources are crucial for lizards, which obtain heat for maintaining high body temperature from the sun. High body temperature and activity promote high growth rate and body size. The thermal resources on a males territory are correlated with the amount of rock in the habitat. The mates vary in territory quality and in other physical attributes such as body size. To understand the importance of direct and indirect benefits, territory quality and body size will be experimentally uncoupled.
Direct Benefits: Experimental manipulations of territory quality will be performed between pairs of neighboring males. After all territories are mapped in early spring, rock will be removed from the territories of large males and deposited on adjacent territories of their smaller male neighbors. This manipulation will effectively reverse the correlation of large male body-size and high-quality territories that is normally present in nature. Changes in the location of female territories will be measured as a function of changes in territory quality, which measures female preference for direct benefits of territory quality. Measuring female's reproductive success will test for the direct benefits accrued by females on high quality territories. Aspects of female reproductive success will include: the condition and survival of the female parent, numbers of offspring produced, size and condition of offpsring, subsequent growth and survival of offspring, The thermal properties nest sites where females lay eggs will also be measured.
Indirect Benefits: The indirect benefits of mate choice are associated with genes that a high quality mate passes on to the female's progeny. In this case, females would be expected to select large males which are likely to carry genes that might enhance progeny growth rate to maturity or perhaps survival. In this species, the female mates with many mates which can vary in male body size. In nature, DNA paternity methods will be used to determine the father of each progeny in the female's clutch. The performance of progeny from large and small males will be measured. In addition, females will be mated in the laboratory to large and small males and the performance of individual progeny will be followed after the progeny are released onto experimental plots in nature. Finally, mate choice trials will be carried out to assess whether females exhibit a strong preference for male body size.
The combination field experiments of territory quality and laboratory experiments will provide a strong test of the relative contribution of direct benefits of territory quality and indirect benefits of good genes for the growth and survival of the female's progeny.

0108577
Sinervo

Predicting population regulation is a fundamental goal of ecological and evolutionary studies. Population regulation must arise from effects of interactions between individuals on rate of reproduction and progeny survival. Interactions should be intense at high density, but weak at low density. The recent discovery of a genetic basis for population regulation of side-blotched lizards facilitates study of density effects. Lizards carry a genetic color marker for alternative reproductive strategies that have cascading effects on progeny survival. Population density and frequency of two genotypes will be manipulated in large-scale field experiments. Genetic change and population regulation will be studied across two generations on replicate field plots. Furthermore, laboratory breeding studies will determine whether the color marker and associated reproductive attributes are due to a single gene, or from many genes.

Mechanisms of hormonal regulation are conserved among lizards, mammals, and birds. Thus, studies on lizards provide basic information on genes and hormones that control reproduction in many free-ranging and domestic species. Furthermore, experiments on density regulation in the wild provide basic information that is vital for predicting long-term changes in animal numbers. For example, predicting long-term effects of global climate change will require an understanding of the ecological and genetic causes of population regulation.

Both reproduction and whole-organism performance are influenced by the endocrine system, and all of these traits have heritable, genetic components. Elucidating links among genetics, reproductive function, performance, and the endocrine and immune systems is essential to understanding how evolution has shaped reproductive strategies and physiology. Systems with discrete polymorphisms provide good models for examining the relationships among these traits since variation both within and among morphs can be examined. Male side-blotched lizards (Uta stansburiana) have three different color morphs (orange, blue, or yellow throat), which arise from a gene of major effect. Each of the types exhibits a different physiological and mating strategy (defense of a large territory with multiple females, defense of an individual female, or "sneaking" into another male's territory). In particular, territorial orange-throated males have high stamina and high levels of plasma testosterone, relative to the other two types. However, these males also have higher mortality rates than the other morphs. Testosterone may decrease the capability of the immune system to cope with infectious agents. In laboratory breeding studies, sprint speed, endurance, and standard metabolic rate of parents and progeny with known throat color genotypes will be measured. In the field, variation in plasma hormones (testosterone and corticosterone) and their effects on sprint speed, endurance, and field metabolic rate will be studied. DNA paternity analysis will provide field pedigrees to complement genetic studies in the laboratory. These experiments will allow the investigators to evaluate the links among hormones, physiology, and reproduction. Currently no data are available to address relations between genetics, physiology, performance, and reproduction; this research accomplishes this major goal and establishes a database for future work. Our work addresses the fundamental forces that shape the joint evolution of endocrine function, physiology and immune function.

The salamander Ensatina eschscholtzii is a model ring species because it forms a ring of populations around the arid Central Valley of California, with reproductively isolated forms overlapping in southern CA but hybridization where other populations contact. Color patterns of these salamanders are thought to have evolved in response to two conflicting ecological pressures: selection favoring bright warning coloration that mimics highly toxic California Newts versus selection favoring cryptic patterns that blend into forest litter (camouflage). Where these forms come into contact there should be strong selection that favors reproductive isolation and that restricts mating within each subspecies. Color patterns of salamanders at contact zones will be studied with spectroradiographic measurements that record light wavelengths to determine how cryptic forms are camouflaged on the background and how warning-colored forms stand out against background patterns. Color patterns will be manipulated on models to assess predator attacks on pure and hybrid forms.

This study addresses basic theories of crypsis and animal perception. It will provide data on how ecological interactions shape evolution of cryptic and warning-colored forms in the evolutionary long term. Such information is important in a general explanation of the evolution of diversity in natural populations.

Sexual conflict and partner manipulation in simultaneous hermaphrodites:
Dr. Barry R Sinervo and Brooke L W Miller

Mating often appears to be a friendly encounter, however, in actuality, conflicts of interest often exist between mating partners. Males seek to prevent females from mating with additional partners to prevent sperm competition, whereas females often seek additional mating partners to reduce the cost of mating with a bad sire. These "sexual conflicts" can lead to the evolution of behaviors that males use to manipulate the mating behavior of the female ("partner manipulation tactics").
Simultaneous hermaphrodites are animals that are both male and female at the same time. They are excellent systems to study sexual conflict due to their unique biology, yet are relatively unstudied. This project examines sexual conflict, sperm competition and the evolution of partner manipulation strategies in the simultaneously hermaphroditic Banana slug, Ariolimax dolicophallus. These slugs exhibit a highly unusual mating behavior of penis chewing after mating, which is explored as an evolved response to sperm competition.
Sinervo and Miller have a long standing interests in science outreach, and this project has been very popular among non-science audiences. Also, because this project is labor intensive, it allows them to work closely with a team of undergraduate students (mostly women) and mentor them on the basics of scientific research. Undergraduates learn a variety of broadly applicable field and molecular laboratory research techniques that they can use in a variety of scientific fields.

The mechanisms by which a single species diverges to form two separate species remains a central question in biology. This research will test the hypothesis that sexual selection (competition for mates) promotes rapid evolution and speciation. This study will be conducted on the side-blotched lizard, Uta stansburiana, a species that has three distinct male mating strategies that compete for females. First, phylogenetic methods (methods that reconstruct the evolutionary history of populations) will be used to test whether there is rapid evolution of multiple traits when mating types are lost in a population. Then, both behavioral and mating experiments will be done to test if reproductive isolation (the hallmark of speciation) results when mating types change between populations.

Understanding the mechanisms of speciation can inform research on genetics, conservation, ecology, and all other areas of biology since species are the fundamental unit of study in biology. As part of this project, at least three undergraduates will gain hands on experience in multiple fields of biology including behavioral ecology, evolution, and phylogenetics. The undergraduates will also learn experimental design and some of the most common methods of molecular biology including DNA extraction, the polymerase chain reaction, and DNA sequencing.

Existing evidence of genomic imprinting has been limited to model organisms isolated from the effects of natural selection. The experiments described in this proposal represent a pioneering investigation of genomic imprinting in a wild vertebrate that will provide valuable and general insights into the ways in which natural selection shapes patterns of genetic variation and inheritance in nature. The continued assessment of both maternity and paternity for side-blotched lizards will generate one of the most extensive field pedigrees in the wild. Increasing understanding of the biology of this natural system has led to the development of a novel hypothesis for the evolution of genomic imprinting, which will be explicitly tested. It is only through the integration of this extensive pedigree with elegant breeding designs and experimental manipulations of maternal effects that these exciting investigations are now possible.

Broader Impacts: The research will train one postdoctoral fellow, two graduate students and twenty undergraduates, including several women and minorities. Co-PI McAdam is a junior faculty member and this project will provide a valuable start to his research program. Broader public outreach will be targeted at the K-12 age group through an interactive website that will teach about the scientific method, natural history and evolution. The research will also produce material for a CD Rom that will be available for K-12 educators on a well-subscribed science education site (http://wise.Berkeley.edu). These outreach endeavors will provide society with a deeper understanding of natural history and the evolutionary process

Spatial memory use has been associated with many behaviors such as territoriality, mate choice, navigation and acquisition of food resources. Differential demands on spatial abilities have been shown to affect the hippocampus, the region of the brain thought partially responsible for spatial processing. Although many studies have found a positive association between space use strategies and hippocampal structure, little is known about the causes of variation in the hippocampus and if or how genetics, experience, hormonal and maternal effects influence this variation. More importantly, while most studies assume fitness consequences based on hippocampal variation, there have been no tests of this assumption. The primary goal of this research is to look at the genetic, maternal, hormonal, and experiential basis of variation in the volume, number of neurons and neurogenesis in the hippocampus, as well as the fitness consequences of variation in the hippocampus of male side-blotched lizards (Uta stansburiana). Consequently, this study has 5 primary goals: (1) to determine whether changes in the hippocampus are genetically encoded and relate to particular genetic combinations, (2) to explore if maternal effects, in the form of estradiol deposition in egg yolk, can cause variation in the hippocampus, (3) to manipulate testosterone in males to gauge if differences in gonadal hormones mediate underlying changes in hippocampal morphology, (4) to explore if changes in the hippocampus can be induced or enhanced by spatial use experiences, and (5) to assess if natural and lesion-induced variation in hippocampal attributes relate to fitness, namely survival. Thus, this research links the mechanism, developmental and fitness consequences of variation in the hippocampus. This study will provide interdisciplinary research training to underrepresented undergraduate students, as well as educating the general public via K-12 scientific videogames, popular print, visual media and presentations at community colleges.

Barry Sinervo IOS 1022031

Effect of Light and Temperature Cycles and Climate Change on Adaptation in Lizards

Recent climate changes in maximum daily temperatures during spring and summer in many parts of the world appear to be driving local population extinctions of many lizard species. Field studies of key reproductive parameters such as breeding time will be conducted on the side-blotched lizard, a species with detailed information on genetics of lay date in nature. Breeding time is expected to change rapidly under the observed 2°C shift in maximum daily spring temperatures observed during the past two decades in California. The researchers expect to find strong natural selection on breeding time. In laboratory experiments, the researchers will study climate-warming effects on "plastic changes" in breeding time to determine physiological limits of acclimation to climate warming. For example, climate warming is expected to induce earlier breeding but this plastic shift in lay date, due to milder winters, may paradoxically generate strong selection for later lay dates because the optimal period for summer juvenile growth has not changed. Finally, a theoretical model that has been used to accurately predict worldwide extinctions of lizards will be used to predict locations of ongoing population extinctions of side-blotch lizards across the US and Mexico. The predictions will be verified with ground-truth surveys and measurements of microclimate. This study will supply critical information on how species adapt to rapid climate change and if adaptation is not possible, it will estimate extinction likelihood. Lizard species are a valuable model because of well-developed methods for studying natural selection, genetics and thermal physiology. Understanding climate effects on ecology of single species (e.g., demography, reproduction) is a first step in understanding climate impacts on ecosystem functioning. These issues are vital for predicting climate impacts on any ecosystem functioning, human agricultural systems included.

Historical climate change is a major driving force shaping diversification patterns of terrestrial vertebrates. While most of this evidence is based on mammals and birds, the evolutionary dynamics of another large group - squamate reptiles (the clade including snakes and lizards) - remain largely unexplored. For this doctoral dissertation enhancement project, the graduate student Christy Hipsley, under the guidance of Dr. Barry Sinervo, will investigate the effects of historical climate change on the evolution of a large family of lizards, the Lacertidae. In collaboration with Dr. Johannes Müller at the Museum für Naturkunde in Berlin, Germany, a comparative phylogenetic approach will be used to test for correlations between ancestral shifts in diversification rates, ecology and morphology in African lacertid lizards. Results will be compared with paleoclimatic data to determine if taxonomic and morphological diversification has been driven by the aridification of Africa since the early Cenozoic, or if there are other factors (e.g., evolutionary age, ecological niche, morphological innovation) that determine species richness in this clade.

While tropical rainforests are often viewed as cradles of diversity, this research focuses on the importance of deserts as centers of reptile evolution. Outcomes of this work include a better understanding of causes of variation in rates of molecular evolution, morphological responses to climate change, and the interplay between ecological variables and biodiversity. Research on lacertid lizards in particular will help to fill taxonomic and geographical gaps in the climate impact literature, which will be useful both for comparisons with other terrestrial vertebrates and to understand how animals with very different physiologies (i.e. cold versus warm blooded) respond to climate change. The collaborative nature of this project, spanning the United States, Europe and Africa, also presents a unique opportunity for people from diverse backgrounds to work together on issues surrounding global climate change, which is now a major concern for the future of biodiversity.

Variation is key to evolution. Differences between individuals within a population, between populations of the same species, and between closely related species represent successive stages in the formation of new species. Ph.D. student Elizabeth Bastiaans and Dr. Barry Sinervo will study individual, population and between species variation in the mesquite lizard species complex, a Mexican lizard whose evolutionary relationships are not yet fully understood. The mesquite lizard inhabits the mountains of central and northern Mexico, an environment that is changing rapidly due to both climate change and increasing urbanization. Ms. Bastiaans and Dr. Sinervo?s work with these lizards will help illuminate how new species form and adapt to the environment. Within populations, the lizards vary in the color of brightly pigmented patches used in mating and aggressive interactions. Between populations and closely related species, the lizards vary in coloration, habitat use, and genetic characteristics. The researchers will use field surveys, behavioral experiments, and molecular tools to address how ecology, behavior, and genetics contribute to divergence between populations in the mesquite lizard. The results of the research will shed light on which populations are most vulnerable to decline or extinction due to climate change and/or habitat loss. This work fosters collaboration between the United States and Mexico on problems that show no respect for borders, and it provides opportunities to train and educate high school and college students from both nations.

A Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) Sites award has been made to the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC) to provide research training for eight students for eight weeks during the summers of 2013-2015. Climate change, the overriding environmental issue of our time, causes drastic changes in the distributions and abundances of many species and potentially threatens peoples' ways of life. This REU will train students to use critical tools to understand mechanisms underlying biological responses to climate change, including: 1) physiological/ecological limits of species; 2) changes in species' interactions; and 3) hypothesis testing that enables one to discriminate between climate change and other natural or anthropogenic factors affecting species diversity and geographical distributions. Students will work on a diversity of organisms, systems, and specific questions guided by mentors from UCSC's Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and the Dept. of Environmental Studies, and several regional organizations. The common threads among projects include 1) testing hypotheses; 2) assembling long-term data sets from museums and faculty research; 3) measuring key physiological/behavioral traits or ecological interactions; 4) predicting changes in species' distributions and/or ecosystems based on future climate scenarios; and 5) conducting field work to ground-truth their predictions. This REU will select and train 24 undergraduates, including many minority students, based on their academic records and research potential. All students will be mentored to help them improve communication skills, discover resources for their education and careers, and recognize and value their own contributions to science. The REU program includes talks, discussions and workshops on methods and concepts key to their projects, and relevant field trips. These students will also join with an existing UCSC undergraduate research program targeting minority students in STEM disciplines for workshops on scientific ethics and communication. Students will be tracked to determine their continued interest in science, career paths, and lasting influences of their REU experience. The program will be assessed by various means, including an REU common assessment tool. More information is available by visiting http://reu.eeb.ucsc.edu/, or by contacting the PI (Dr. Barry Sinervo at lizardrps@gmail.com) or the co-PI (Dr. Laurel Fox at fox@ucsc.edu).

Climate change due to increases in anthropogenic carbon is altering global patterns of temperature and rainfall. These environmental changes are transforming plant communities, which in turn may be causing local extinctions of many vertebrate species. For example, when faced with prolonged heat waves and droughts, trees may be unable to draw sufficient water from the soil and drop most of their leaves. Diminished leaf cover allows more sunlight to reach the ground, amplifying local warming trends and increasing heat and water stress for plants themselves and for many vertebrate species. The goal of this award is to evaluate how climate-driven changes to plant communities are increasing extinction rates for certain "cold-blooded" vertebrate species (i.e., lizards, frogs). This study hypothesizes that many such vertebrate species are going extinct in part because rising temperatures are directly stressful to them, and in part because rising temperatures also damage plant communities, upon which animals rely for food, water, and shelter. Intensive studies will be made at specific localities on five continents where targeted animal species have recently gone extinct. At these sites, researchers with expertise in plant and animal physiology and ecology will collaborate to quantify the extent to which recent droughts and warm-spells have altered plant communities, which in turn have increased heat and water stress on animals. These local studies will then be linked (via remote sensing methods and online databases), to create a worldwide data set that integrate information on temperature, rainfall, plant die-offs, and the physiological limits of targeted animals to heat and water stress. Such data will enable scientists to predict and test, with unprecedented accuracy across regions and continents, how extinction rates among targeted vertebrate species relate to current and expected changes in rainfall, temperature, and plant communities.

Previous models of climate-warming impacts have focused on plants or animals, but not both. For example, many climate change scientists study animal systems in isolation of plant systems, thus emphasizing only the role of changing climate per se on animal taxa (e.g., rising temperatures limit lizards from foraging in direct sunlight). This project differs by a) modeling how climate-driven changes to plant communities increase warm spells and drought conditions, and b) showing how changes to plant communities alters the environment available used by the targeted animals species and push their physiological limits, speeding their extinction rates. This model will be grounded by field studies that test for non-climate related causes of animal extinctions; this will enable scientists to determine the factors that explain the ever increasing extinction rates among targeted animals. New web-based products will be developed that use remote sensing technology to predict current and future degradations in ecosystems across the globe. A project of this scope requires collaboration among scientists with expertise in climatology, physiology, biodiversity, and remote sensing. An international team from 20 countries will work together on this project; a new generation of postdoctoral research fellows and hundreds of graduate students will be trained in the latest physiological and mathematical methods in climate change studies.

The distributions of virtually all organisms are dictated by abiotic and biotic factors and dispersal or propagule pressure (number of individuals colonizing a non-native region). Nevertheless, there are few theoretical and empirical studies that a) simultaneously consider the impacts of these three processes on species interactions and distributions or b) investigate how the relative influence of these factors change across spatial and temporal scales. Host-parasite interactions are species interactions of particular concern because human and wildlife diseases are emerging at an unprecedented rate. Funds are being provided to address this knowledge gap using a theoretical framework to test how spatial and temporal scales affect host-parasite interactions. Spatially, abiotic factors, such as climate, might be most important at large spatial scales, but biotic and propagule pressure factors might be more important at small scales where climate is generally more homogeneous. Temporally, unpredictable climatic shifts, which are increasing with global climate change, might increase infections because parasites should acclimate to temperature shifts more quickly than their hosts due to their smaller sizes and faster metabolisms. The overall goal of this grant is to use a combination of experiments, modeling, and local-to-global analyses to test these and other hypotheses for how spatiotemporal scales affect host-parasite interactions and disease emergence. Amphibian-parasite interactions will be the model study system because there are several spatiotemporally-explicit datasets on amphibian distributions, amphibian pathogen prevalence, and pathogen-driven amphibian declines and extinctions. The specific objectives are to:
A. Determine how the temporal scale of climatic shifts affects host-parasite interactions.
B. Evaluate how spatial scale affects the relative importance of abiotic, biotic, and propagule pressure factors to host-parasite interactions.
C. Develop validated predictive models for extinction risk driven by climate change and disease.

This award will engage individuals of ethnicities or abilities that are under-represented in science and will broadly educate the public on the biology of environmental change, providing a positive legacy that will persist beyond its funding. The proposed research will be thoroughly integrated with a new graduate course on the importance of spatiotemporal scales in ecology and will provide research opportunities for undergraduates that are female and of ethnicities or abilities that are under-represented in science. Additionally, in coordination with the Hillsborough County School District and the University of South Florida's College of Continuing Education, the research team will offer summer workshops (as continuing education credits) on the biology of environmental change for high school biology teachers. At least one-half of the teachers will be chosen from schools with a primarily minority enrollment. Finally, the scientific research itself will have widespread public benefits because it will enhance forecasts of the effects of natural and anthropogenic environmental change on disease risk across spatiotemporal scales.

Considerable uncertainty exists about the effects of changing climates on the distributions of plants and animals. Most studies of recent climate change on species' geographic ranges are based on projections from computer models rather than measured responses from field studies. This research takes a very different and multi-tiered approach by using historical records and specimens with the necessary precision, geographic and temporal scale, and magnitude of observed climate change to produce important insights into the direct and indirect effects of climatic and nonclimatic factors on changes in species' geographic distributions. This research will resurvey field sites in the southwest United States last surveyed more than 70 years ago, which will not only advance our understanding of environmental changes but will establish a new benchmark for comparison of future changes. Federal land-management agencies will benefit from greater knowledge of the status of sensitive species and wildlife responses to climate change. Specimens and audio recordings collected will be available for ancillary studies. Results will be extended broadly to the public through talks, popular press and media, and museum displays, including new exhibits of the San Diego Natural History Museum and the Oakland Museum of California. The National Park Service Science and Education Office will distribute results widely through videos and podcasts to train their interpreters on the biological effects of environmental change and to provide interpretive materials for their visitor centers. Undergraduates, graduate student and postdoctoral researchers will participate in this study, learning field and lab techniques, natural history, physiological methods and modeling. Results and data will be shared with scientists and the general public through websites and online databases.

This project will resurvey sites that were sampled from 1908-1945 to examine the impact of 20th century climate change on small mammal and bird communities in Sonoran, Mojave, and Great Basin deserts. These areas have warmed greatly over the last 50 years, with the average annual temperatures increasing up to 2°C. The research will advance understanding of animal responses to climate change by: developing new models that mechanistically project species' ranges by linking climate through important physiological thresholds of temperature and water stress; developing novel tests to examine whether climate change results in species shifting their geographic ranges individually or whether whole communities of species shift similarly; and testing if body sizes and diets of species have responded to climate change. Birds and mammals will be resurveyed at 105 sites. Both audio and physical voucher specimens will be collected and made available for future reanalysis. Standard morphological data will be collected for birds and mammal skulls. Ratios of carbon and nitrogen isotopes will be measured from tissues. Multispecies occupancy models will account for detectability in historical and current surveys to develop unbiased estimators of local colonization and extinction of species and changes in community composition in response to site-level characteristics. Measures of thermal and hydric stress at and above the upper limit of the thermal neutral zone will be made for 12 species of mammals to develop models of heat stress that can be validated.

Climate change has widespread regional impacts on diverse biotic systems but most field stations are not yet instrumented with automated data collection systems that would allow integrated measurements of ecophysiology of plants and vertebrates at micro-climate scales needed for detailed studies of physiology, ecology, behavior, evolution and ecosystems, both locally and across large regions. The central hypothesis motivating this instrument investment is that the risk of extinction of organisms due to climate change arises from: a) the direct effects of climate, acting via evolved physiological adaptations that exacerbate extinction risk, and b) the cascading effects of climate change impacts on plant diversity and habitats. These data, together with research that uses them, will allow us to forecast future climate impacts on biotic systems, and to eventually assess historical impacts of climate in and around each of the field stations. The Institute for the Study of the Ecological and Evolutionary Climate Impacts (ISEECI) organizes diverse scientists across the UC System and are integrating these studies with the scientists using Northern Arizona University's Southwest Experimental Garden Array (SEGA). This array of ecophysiological plant and animal sensors will ensure cross-site consistency and comparability at a sufficiently large spatial scale to address regional impacts of climate on coastal, central valley, montane and desert ecosystems of the Southwest.

This new sensor network will instrument 12 sites in the California and 8 sites in Northern Arizona with data loggers and sensors designed to measure environmental parameters relevant to a wide range of animal and plant species. Selected conifers and coastal redwoods will be monitored for sap flow and soil temperature and moisture, and more open grassland/forb and shrub communities with soil temperature and moisture sensors as well as surface temperature at biologically salient heights to complement the existing system of upgraded weather stations already present at NRS and SEGA sites. Temperature sensors will collect similar data on environmental temperatures of endothermic and ectothermic animal taxa, and install phenocams to record phenological changes in trees driven by climate change. The system can be upgraded with new sensors, is expandable with respect to the kinds of data we gather and biotic systems we can instrument, and will be very adaptable for future research. The instruments will capture salient measurements of temperature and drought impacts on terrestrial systems that will allow a unified analysis of ecosystem functioning in the face of changing climate, adding scientific value to each individual field station with a more in-depth biotic record of historical change, and also across the system of field stations enhancing collaboration across the west coast and southwest region of the US. Sensor data will be available immediately online to all ISEECI and SEGA scientists groups, and once fully operational to other researchers. Integration with education and public outreach will give hundreds of students critical messages about climate change and using science to help mitigate its impacts. NAU and the UC system provide graduate and undergraduate students with many experiential learning opportunities in environmental sciences, and detailed, long-term data will supplement and contextualize classwork and research projects. UC and NAU actively work to enhance student diversity: NAU has particular expertise in reaching Native American students, while the Hispanic representation at universities in both states is increasing and being actively incorporated into campus programs and labs.