Hajo Eicken - US grants

ABSTRACT OPP-9872626 EICKEN, HAJO UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA The project will quantify the lateral and vertical meltwater movement and associated freshwater and heat fluxes in summer sea ice through the use of novel hydrological tracers. The fate of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is a very important issue due to its effects on global and regional climate and economics. The investigator will use stable isotopes and fluorescent dyes to make a significant advance in the understanding of the driving forces responsible for melting sea ice. As such, the research will enable improvements in sea ice models that will allow better prediction of melting in response to global warming. The project will be conducted at the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) Ocean site in the Beaufort Sea where other studies underway will enhance the results of this project by providing validation of the techniques employed.

ABSTRACT

Deming, Jody
Eicken, Hajo

The overall goal of the project is to better understand, at relevant spatial scales, the geophysical constraints on bacterial activity at very low temperatures in the brine pores of wintertime sea ice. The role of solid surfaces as attachment sites for bacteria figures strongly in the formulation and testing of hypotheses. The three main objectives are: 1) to characterize the evolution and spatial distribution of the different phase components in sea-ice pores on scales relevant to microorganisms; 2) to determine the in-situ distribution of bacteria within the ice matrix and their association with different surfaces; and 3) to examine bacterial activity in brine solutions at temperatures from 4 to -300C as a function of concentration of dissolved organic matter and presence of different surfaces. The research approach combines field observations of Arctic sea ice (known to entrain mineral surfaces) with novel laboratory experiments designed to characterize micro-physical features of sea-ice as it evolves at decreasing temperature and to measure microbial reactions to increasingly extreme thermal and chemical conditions. The plan relies upon standard methods for assessing bacterial abundance and location (epifluorescence and scanning electron microscopy) and selected metabolic activities (substrate uptake and extracellular hydrolysis), but applied in new ways (after ice sublimation, to viscous sub-zero brines). Standard methods for physical and chemical assessments of sea ice will also be employed, but in combination with novel techniques (micro-scale collections by sublimation, NMR). Results will significantly expand the knowledge base for predicting the lower temperature threshold for microbial life on Earth and possibly elsewhere on ice-covered solar bodies. They should also enhance understanding of the seasonal functioning of polar microbial ecosystems and sea-ice itself, as it effects the global heat budget and climate, and practical applications of low-temperature bacteria and enzymes in biotechnology.

This award will provide funds for the partial support of an International Glaciology Society symposium on Sea Ice and its Interaction with the Ocean, Atmosphere, and Biosphere, to be held in Fairbanks, Alaska, in June 2000 under the scientific sponsorship of the International Glaciology Society. The IGS, based at Cambridge University, England, is the professional society for scientists who study snow and ice in all its forms. There is no comparable national organization. The IGS sponsors at least one symposium annually, with the presentations published in the peer-reviewed Annals of Glaciology. This symposium is timely since there has not been a symposium dedicated solely to sea ice and its processes since 1990, and a number of major multi- disciplinary sea ice programs will have been completed within the next two years. The symposium will provide a suitable forum for the dissemination of significant new results from (e.g.) the joint NSF/ONR Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic program, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program, the NSF/ONR submarine science program, the NSF Long-term Ecological Research site at Palmer Station, ongoing NASA satellite-based studies, and NOAA -sponsored arctic oceanographic research. Polar sea ice is both a bellwether and an agent of climate change. The effects of climate change on the characteristics of the Earth's sea ice cover will affect the physical, chemical, and biological processes beyond the immediate influence of the ice because these processes are interlinked on a global scale. Interdisciplinary studies involving a combination of field investigations, satellite-based remote sensing, and numerical modelling studies will make important contributions to increasing our knowledge of the geophysics of sea ice and its impacts on the global environment. Dissemination of research results at conferences such as this will promote future cooperative research, and maximize the benefits of research results.

ABSTRACT

Cole 9813221 and Shapiro/Eicken 9872573

The objective of this 3-year project is to address gaps in knowledge of
the development and evolution of some important macro- and microstructural
features of first year sea ice by repeated measurements through the annual
cycle from freezing to melting. Topics of study include:(1)the geometrical
characteristics and spatial distribution of brine drainage networks and
their relationship to the crystal structure of the ice, (2) the 3-dimensional characterization of brine and gas inclusions,(3)variations in permeability through the year and the resulting impact on heat and mass transfer through the ice, and (4)details of the relationship between c-axis fabrics and under-ice currents. Knowledge of these is important for studies of the optical and mechanical properties of sea ice, biological activity in sea ice, remote sensing applications, some aspects of climate modeling, and the entrainment and transport of contaminants.

The main activity of this project will be the acquisition and analysis of
detailed observations relevant to the structural features listed, along with
in-situ permeability measurements. The samples and data will be collected
periodically through the year from a study site on first-year sea ice near
Barrow, Alaska. The site will be instrumented to continuously monitor the
thermal regime of the ice, and other relevant parameters will be measured
periodically through the year. The scale of the features to be studied ranges from individual brine inclusions (approximately 10-4 m) to the full thickness of the ice sheet. Current information on these subjects comes mainly from short-term field studies (although there are some notable exceptions) which often involve relatively thin ice, or studies on laboratory-prepared specimens. To some extent, this reflects the difficulty of obtaining information on natural
first year ice sheets as they evolve through the year from initial freezing
to melting. The main problems in this regard are the remoteness of the field
areas and the expense of getting to them, coupled with the lack of appropriate methodologies for collecting samples other than by relatively small-diameter corers. However, this project makes use of recent advances in techniques for sampling, measuring and testing for the relevant parameters, some of which the investigators helped to develop. In addition, the presence of the Barrow Arctic Science Consortium (BASC) as a reliable source of local personnel to assist in data gathering allows frequent visits to the site to be made for routine data collection or sampling. These data collection efforts will maintain continuity between and after 3 additional field programs of approximately 10 days each, during which extensive data sets will be acquired. These programs will be timed to conduct detailed studies of the ice at the site shortly after it forms, under cold, mid-winter conditions, and at the start of the melt season. In addition to the usual salinity, density, grain size and c-axis fabric measurements, specialized observations will include the permeability measurements and associated detailed measurement of drainage pathways, sets
of orthogonal micrographs (which yield size distributions of small-scale
inclusions in 3-dimensions), ocean current measurements, and vertical
sections through the entire thickness of the ice sheet. The latter provide a
unique view of larger-scale features such as brine drainage networks and
horizontal banding. The data will be used to develop or evaluate and improve
existing salt-flux/thermodynamic ice growth models.

The PI proposes to use a time-series of the relevant atmospheric, hydrologic and oceanic parameters in conjunction with remote sensing methods to examine the Siberian shelf-land system. The impact of linkages between hydrology, atmospheric circulation and the sea-ice regime over the Siberian shelves will be assessed for a decadal variability that affects the Eurasian Arctic. The study will identify 1) links among riverine fresh-water supply, sea-ice formation and sediment export by ice rafting, 2) quantify the regional and temporal variability of the relevant processes, 3) determine the relative importance of major, catastrophic events as compared to the gradual evolutionary regime of coastal and basin-wide sediment transport, 4) identify a set of critical processes and parameters that delimit the gradual and the catastrophic regime. Those analyses will yield an understanding of land-ocean interactions that will yield important information necessary for predicting impacts from global change in the Arctic.

Exopolymeric substances (EPS), secreted in the form of mucous slime by aquatic microorganisms, are known to play important roles in marine ecosystems. The proposed research will investigate the potential for exopolymeric substances to alter the microstructure of the sea-ice habitat and to serve as cryoprotectants for microorganisms dwelling within ice structures. Main research goals are as follows: (1) to determine how and to what extent the pool of EPS present in sea ice may result in an alteration of the microhabitat; (2) to assess the potential role of EPS as cryoprotection; and (3) to determine the major sea-ice producers of EPS along with relevant environmental cues for bulk and specific exopolymer production. These objectives will be pursued through a combination of laboratory and field studies, including culture-based and open-air ice-growth. The role of polymers in ice desalination processes (through their effects on brine viscosity and ice permeability) and in preventing pore closure at very low temperatures will also be investigated. These findings will be compared to in-situ EPS production by bacterial and diatom communities under quasi-natural conditions. The cryoprotectant effects of EPS and their associations with highly concentrated wintertime brines will be examined directly with in-situ experimentation in the Arctic ice sheet near Barrow, Alaska. The proposed work is relevant not only to low-temperature survival strategies and their impact on the physical environment, but also in the general context of polar marine ecology and carbon cycling, radiative and other transfer properties of the polar ice cap, industrial applications in cryobiology, and the potential habitability of Jovian moons.

Significant change has been observed in sea-ice conditions along the northern coast of Alaska. These changes could represent alterations in the proportion of sunlight reaching the surface, in the quality and quantity of back radiation into the atmosphere from the surface, or in changes in heat content of land and coastal seas. To provide basic information about the radiation inputs, losses, and heat fluxes, the proposed research would establish 5 sites near Barrow Alaska for detailed monitoring of solar and atmospheric heat fluxes as experienced by snow, sea-ice, near-surface waters, and land. The five sites would include a tundra site, a lake site, a coastal lagoon, and two coastal ocean sites. The goal would be to establish the local heat budgets, seasonal timing of key thermal events (snow melt, sea-ice melt, freezing onset, etc), and feedback mechanisms. The approach would be to use moorings (lake and coastal sites) or permanent stations (tundra site) to obtained detailed information in time series, transect line sampling on frequent useful intervals to obtain spatial averages and variability, and aircraft sampling and satellite data to evaluate larger scale conditions in the vicinity of Barrow.

0125464
Gradinger

This interdisciplinary proposal aims to quantify sea ice primary production in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. The main working hypotheses are that both light and nutrient supply control biomass formation within the sea ice. While irradiance controls the rate of biomass change in spring and autumn, nutrient advection dominates during summer as meltwater accumulation below the ice impedes nutrient supply and hence limits the total biomass accumulation in the ice cover. To verify these hypotheses the project combines field studies, laboratory experimental work and remote sensing observations. This approach is designed to quantify the ice-related biogeochemical processes and to supply a regional, seasonally varying estimate of carbon accumulation in, and release from, the ice cover. The shipboard work will take place during two spring-summer (May-August) expeditions when physical, chemical and biological parameters will be measured at locations encompassing the prevalent ice types. Ice thickness and structure will be determined using an indirect measurement technique along transects varying in length from hundreds to thousands of meters. Ice cores will be analyzed to determine the vertical distributions of salinity, temperature, stable isotope concentrations, algal pigment concentrations and species composition. Primary production will be determined using optical and tracer techniques. Laboratory experimental work will assess the relationships among ice physics, chemistry and algal activity and to extrapolate results of the field measurements to early spring and late summer when shipboard sampling is more difficult. Integration of remote sensing data will contribute to regional estimates of ice algal production and its temporal and spatial variability within the study region. This proposal contributes to the goals of the western Arctic Shelf-Basin Interaction program by assessing the regional contribution of ice-associated primary production and consequent accumulation and release of carbon from the ice to the adjacent water column system. Results are expected to help in understanding and quantifying the ice algal community response to climate variations.

A combination of mathematical and numerical modeling, laboratory experiments, field experiments, and three-dimensional data visualization techniques will be applied to the problem of determining the influence of the microscale pore structure of sea-ice on the macroscopic thermodynamic and fluid transport properties of such ice. The work represents a collaboration between a mathematician, a glaciologist and a computer scientist. A variety of mathematical approaches, including both lattice and continuum percolation representations, to modeling the bulk properties of irregular three-dimensional media will be applied to ice with varying degrees of connectivity between microscale brine inclusions. Field and lab experiments, including MRI and X-ray imaging of ice samples, will be combined with modern three-dimensional rendering of the resulting data to provide quantitative and qualitative information about the variability of such connectivity, particularly as a function of ice temperature. Model predictions of macroscopic permeability and thermal conductivity will be compared to experimentally measured transport properties. Through a collaboration with Dr. J. Fry at Victoria University, New Zealand, and student research projects, the models developed for transport in sea-ice will be extended to fluid migration through rock and the diffusion of gas through glacial firn. The latter is an important factor in the interpretation of paleo-atmospheric composition from bubbles trapped in ice-cores. The project also includes a substantial amount of training and outreach, with field work for graduate and undergraduate students, and classroom demonstrations and experiments in elementary and secondary schools.

This study will derive the thermal conductivity of first-year antarctic sea ice as a function of ice microstructure, temperature, temperature gradients, salinity, and other environmental parameters. Measurements will be carried out by freezing thermistor arrays into the fast ice of McMurdo Sound.
The thermal conductivity of sea ice determines the magnitude of the heat flow through the ice, and hence the exchange of heat between the ocean and atmosphere, for a given ice temperature gradient. General circulation models (GCMs) and large-scale sea-ice models currently include overly simplistic parameterizations of the ice thermal conductivity, developed several decades ago, that are likely to contribute significantly to errors in estimating ice production rates.
The results from this work will feed into improved parameterizations of sea ice parameters for collaboration with the Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP2) Team established under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. The research will advance and improve: (1) our understanding of processes and parameters controlling heat transfer and thermal conductivity of first-year sea ice, (2) measurement techniques for the derivation of thermal conductivity and heat flow data from thermistor arrays, (3) our understanding of sea-ice processes and heat flow through the ice cover in the McMurdo Sound region, (4) parameterizations of thermal conductivity for use in large-scale and high-resolution one-dimensional simulations, and (5) the representation of first-year ice antarctic and arctic thermal properties in GCMs.

Abstract

The distinct annual cycle of solar radiation is a defining feature of the Arctic system. The lack of sunlight in winter and the long daylight hours in summer control the seasonal cycle of the surface heat budget, structure both terrestrial and marine ecosystems, drive the seasonal build-up and sequestration of carbon and play a major role in the cycling of major atmospheric constituents. One of the most important aspects of the disposition of solar radiation within the Arctic system is the reflection, absorption and transmission of sunlight by the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system (AIOS). The overall goals of this study are to enhance our understanding of the present role that solar radiation plays in the Arctic AIOS and to improve our ability to predict the future role. This will be accomplished through an integrative and synthetic approach. Data will be collected from a wide range of sources including laboratory studies, field experiments, and satellite observations. An error analysis and data gap assessment will be a central component of the synthesis activity. Process models, ice-ocean models, and reanalysis products will be used to fill the gaps in the dataset. The primary product of this synthesis effort will be a 20-year, pan-Arctic description of the interaction of solar radiation with the AIOS. In particular, we will determine spectral values from 250 to 2500 nm of the incident solar energy, the reflected solar energy, and the solar energy absorbed in the snow, sea ice, and upper ocean. Values will be computed on a monthly, pan-Arctic basis from 1987 to 2007 using the 25 x 25 km Equal Area Scalable Earth Grid. The influx of (solar) heat into the Western Arctic through Bering Strait will also be examined in detail, since the largest changes in ice extent and ice thickness have been observed in this sector of the Arctic. This proposed synthesis of solar radiation in the Arctic AIOS will contribute several key elements to the larger synthesis of the Arctic System including: an assessment of the recent changes in solar energy input to the Arctic Ocean in relation to the observed changes in ice cover and ice mass balance; an evaluation of polar amplification through the ice-albedo feedback; information on the distribution of solar energy available for driving the biological production in the under-ice and upper ocean environments; and insights into the potential changes in and impacts of solar energy distribution as predicted by climate change models.

Eicken 0712673
Univ. of Alaska - Fairbanks

Funds are provided to examine over 30 years of landfast ice records,
cyclone tracks and intensity along with frequency and timing of coastal high wind
conditions, nearshore pack ice drift, and coastal weather observations in two
representative arctic coastal regions. The focus of the project is to examine the relevant processes driving landfast ice responses to storm-produced coastal environmental change. To understand the physics that drive the dynamic and thermodynamic processes of landfast ice, existing coastal observations and numerical modeling will be included in a detailed process analysis.

The principal investigators will merge their various data sets and knowledge to address the following questions: (1) How do changes in the storm climate affect the coastal air temperatures and wind conditions? (2) How does landfast ice, including its stability and grounding patterns, respond to coastal winds and storm activity as well as nearshore ice motion and coastal currents? (3) What are the physical connections among those factors determining long-term variations of fast ice extent and duration? (4) What impacts on landfast ice are likely under a scenario of increased storm activity?

Landfast ice is a small fraction of the total ice cover of the Arctic Ocean, yet it is of extreme importance to the indigenous polpulation's way of life. It protects the beach from erosion during extended periods of time; it provides a surface over which to travel between villages by snowmobile and sled; it is the surface from which much subsistence hunting (seal, walrus, whale) takes place. Understanding how it is and will change has importance for day-to-day safety, as well as strategic management.

This interdisciplinary project implements an integrated program of observing seasonal ice in the context of environmental, geo-political and socio-economic change in the North. In addition to sampling of sea-ice state variables, the observation-system design is guided by the concept of sea-ice system services (SISS). By assessing the nature and extent of SISS, an integrated observation network can be built that will lead to prediction of key trends in a changing Arctic in a way that provides maximum benefit for the broadest range of affected interests. The first iteration of this observation program will help to address these major scientific questions: 1) To what extent are changes in the SIZ at the local level throughout the Arctic correlated with large-scale change in summer minimum ice extent?, 2) How does the SIZ respond to amplified ice-albedo feedback in seasonal ice as opposed to the buffering effects of enhanced snow-ice interaction and ice deformation?, 3) How strongly does coastal sea ice impact change in terrestrial environments?, 4) What does the sub-Arctic Okhotsk Sea teach about impending Arctic environmental and socio-economic change? While the focus of this project is on the Western Arctic, which has seen some of the most dramatic sea-ice reductions in past decades, an international team has been assembled from six nations that maximizes synergies and allows these questions to be addressed in a circum-Arctic context along a latitudinal gradient spanning the entire extent of the seasonal ice zone, well into the perennial ice. Observations in the western Arctic sector include shore-based and drift-ice measurements of ice motion, key mass-balance variables and critical snow and ice properties such as albedo, as well as airborne electromagnetic ice thickness measurements. Pan-Arctic data of seasonal ice evolution and ice-type distribution will be extracted from satellite microwave remote-sensing observations. All data will be ingested into an archival and dissemination system that is linked to the Alaska Ocean Observing System and administered by the Geographic Information Network of Alaska. Education at the K-12 and university levels and public outreach are integral parts of the project, with an international field course, web-based engagement of students and the general public, public lectures in local communities, and other modes of presentation taking a prominent role in the project. Stakeholders at various levels will be engaged through the SISS approach, and scientists will work with community-based observers to calibrate and validate the methodology.

This Small Grant for Exploratory Research is to develop and field-test methods for taking automated in situ dc resistivity measurements in sea ice. This will allow researchers to track the evolution of sea ice profile properties and to fill a current gap in the real-time monitoring of local ice conditions needed to assess ice strength and trafficability. Experimental work involves cross-borehole tomography measurements not previously performed in sea ice, and applying a microstructurally-realistic improved analysis of Wenner array soundings. Both methods exploit the large resistivity contrast between saline brine and pure ice, which makes the bulk resistivity of sea ice very sensitive to the connectivity of the interior brine volume. The proposed site for this work is landfast first-year ice near Barrow, Alaska, offering the benefits of accessible and readily-monitored ice and proximity to logistics support. The measurements will be complemented by full ice characterization data collected at a nearby mass balance site installed by our group as part of the nascent Alaska Ocean Observing System. Through collaboration with a solid-earth geophysicist with expertise in geoelectric array measurements, substantial synergistic benefits will also be derived from this project. Resistivity measurements in low temperature winter ice and during spring warming are ideally suited to assess theoretical predictions of the appearance and evolution of a 'percolation threshold' in the brine volume connectivity, and other critical transitions in ice profile properties, such as substantial reductions in ice strength in the high-porosity (>10%) regime. The lack of appropriate field data (in particular time series) is significantly limiting progress in the research field, and this work aims to evaluate potential benefits that can be derived from novel geoelectric array measurements, owing to their high sensitivity, nondestructive nature and suitability for easy deployment in existing drifting sensor networks. This project will enhance research infrastructure by (1) developing a method (and corresponding instrumentation) that helps close a significant gap in drifting sensor networks which do not provide information on the state of the ice cover and its transport properties; (2) providing for a means to test and refine the applicability of percolation theory to a number of important sea ice geophysical phenomena; (3) laying the foundation for routine in situ monitoring of the state of the ice cover as applicable for engineering and operational applications (such as those relying on sea ice as a stable platform for transport and logistics); and (4) enhancing collaboration and exchange between the solid-earth geophysics and sea-ice glaciology communities to address common problems of materials at high homologous temperatures. These aspects of the project will be introduced into education by involving graduate students in the research and integrating the collaboration into an interdisciplinary seminar series examining porous media from volcanological and glaciological perspectives.

This proposal is based on the concept of sea-ice system services as a unifying theme. The proposal focuses on the role of sea ice as a provider of services that are crucial to a range of users, such as parts of an ecosystem, indigenous populations, the oil and gas industry, or humanity as a whole, through the climate regulating services provided by the ice. This proposal has four elements (1) Conduct a sea-ice field course that provides a comprehensive, integrated perspective on the state-of-the-art in field studies of sea ice, using sea-ice system services as a unifying concept to link course modules and aid with research design. (2) Develop a handbook and multimedia products comprising high-quality digital video, animations, and supporting computer programs that serve as resources for (under)graduate education, professional training, and as a reference work for scientists in a range of relevant fields. (3) Distill an outreach multimedia product out of the materials referenced above that can serve as an entry point for members of the public interested in following up on media reports on sea-ice change as well as a teaching tool in K-12 curricula. (4) Create a documentary record of the state-of-the-art in studies of the sea-ice system, the services it provides to a broad range of users, and the (field) methods employed in its study during IPY-4 that can serve as a reference point and legacy product for future outreach as well as studies of science history and science culture. Using these three methods, the project intends to address five major aspects of sea ice: (1) the changing role of sea ice as an important habitat for microorganisms at the center of Arctic marine foodwebs, (2) the status of the polar bear and other marine mammals heavily depending on sea ice, (3) the role of sea ice as a hazard to shipping and coastal infrastructure, (4) the reduced stability of coastal sea ice as a source of concern to indigenous hunters, (5) sea ice in the context of environmental security, e.g., clean-up of oil spills in ice-covered waters. The project will train a cadre of interdisciplinary researcher to address sea ice issues and leave a legacy for International Polar Year. The project also integrates the sea ice knowledge of Alaska Natives living in Barrow.

Eicken 0960363
University of Alaska Fairbanks

The PIs propose implementation of Phase I of a 12-month process to provide guidance to the National Science Foundation, the scientific community and others engaged in Arctic environmental observations on how to best achieve a well-designed, effective and robust Arctic observing system. An Arctic Observing Network (AON) Design and Implementation (ADI) Task Force, composed of researchers with observing-system expertise both within and outside of the Arctic, will work with other key experts to meet these objectives. Activities include a combination of virtual and in-person meetings, two workshops and a small array of proof-of-concept or exploratory studies overseen by the Task Force, culminating in a summary report with recommendations for the next steps in optimizing, coordinating, and enhancing the existing components of an international Arctic environmental observing system with emphasis on the AON. During this Phase I of the project funds are provided to facilitate activities up to and including the completion of an initial workshop and a follow-up assessment meeting.

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).

Eicken 0934683
University of Alaska Fairbanks

Funds are provided to develop methods of electromagnetically monitoring the internal state of sea ice, the thermal evolution of its microstructure, and the transport processes it controls. The PIs will conduct fundamental mathematical studies, as well as field experiments in the Arctic and Antarctic, directed at recovering microstructual profiles and their evolution at critical phases in the seasonal cycle of the ice pack. They will develop in situ tomographic methods to obtain the complex permittivity profile o sea ice at low frequency, and mathematical techniques to use this data to reconstruct the evolution of the spectral measure of the composite microstructure, which contains detailed information about brine geometry and connectedness. They will investigate the critical behavior of this measure near the percolation threshold, where fluid flow turns on or off. Our work will yield novel spectral representations for fluid and thermal transport coefficients, and characterizations of the spectral measure as a free energy minimizer, as in statistical mechanics. They will analyze the thermal evolution of the distribution of eigenvalue spacings for the spectral measure as a powerful way of characterizing the order/disorder transition in the brine microstructure of sea ice, as motivated by the theory of random matrices. They will also develop multiscale numerical models of the complex permittivity and other transport properties from random graph representations of the microstructure to aid reconstruction calculations. Their results will yield valuable information on snow-ice formation, melt processes, and flood-freeze cycling, and provide insights on parameterizing these processes in climate and biogeochemical models. Key features of the proposed work include:
? Development of cross-borehole tomography and direct measurement techniques on cores. Initial testing, validation and refinement in the lab and the Arctic near Barrow, with Antarctic measurements.
? Development of cross-property relations connecting EM, thermal, and fluid transport via the spectral measure, and related methods for EM imaging of transport processes in sea ice.

Eicken 0856867
University of Alaska Fairbanks

Funds are provided to build on activities of the Seasonal Ice Zone Observing Network (SIZONet). SIZONet Phase I led to the development of the sea-ice system services (SISS) concept, describing societal benefits (and potentially negative impacts) derived from the ice cover. By assessing the nature and extent of SISS, the PIs are able to build a sea-ice observing network that is responsive to the needs of both the scientific community and key stakeholders. SIZONet builds on collaboration with several international partners, and spans the entire latitudinal extent of the Arctic seasonal ice zone (SIZ). Based on common protocol and coordinated observation strategies developed in the context of an international working group led by the project team, SIZONet Phase II refines and narrows the scope of the project and focuses on sustaining core observations. The aim is to provide data and information to scientists and stakeholders that: (1) address the most urgent information needs identified by the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) and related efforts; (2) meet sea-ice user information needs, centering on access, use of ice as a platform, and ice as coastal hazard and regulator of coastal erosion; (3) contribute to development of down-scaling approaches for climate modeling and remote sensing; and (4) are directly tied to SISS, allowing existing collaborations to grow into partnerships that can help track and predict Arctic environmental change and meet long-term information needs.

Observations include shore-based and drift-ice measurements of ice motion, key mass-balance variables and critical snow and ice properties such as albedo, as well as airborne ice thickness and property surveys. Measurements in coastal ice, of greatest interest to key stakeholders, include hydrographic moorings, survey measurements and integration of satellite imagery. Local ice observations and joint ice-trail mapping provide a link between sea-ice geophysics and indigenous sea-ice expertise. All SIZONet data is ingested into an archival and dissemination system linked to the Alaska Ocean Observing System, the Geographic Information Network of Alaska, and the Cooperative Arctic Data and Information System.

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) synthesizes research findings and promotes arctic science across disciplines and among agencies, coordinates national arctic environmental science programs and facilitates integration of research activities across scales with stakeholder concerns incorporated from the start of the planning process, provides information resources to arctic stakeholders, policy-makers, and the public to help them respond to arctic environmental change, and represents the U.S. arctic environmental change science community in international and global change research initiatives. Meeting these goals relies on a range of coordination, planning and assessment activities. This project will provide these through leadership of the SEARCH program in a time of rapid Arctic change and urgent information needs at the agency and societal level. Under the auspices of SEARCH, this project will support a range of activities targeting (1) strategic planning, (2) assessment and implementation, (3) coordination and (4) communication through leadership of the Science Steering Committee and engagement of SEARCH partner agencies, key national and international programs and important stakeholders.

While the proposed activities do not comprise any scientific research as such, they serve to advance scientific discovery and innovation by building a framework that fosters advanced, cross-cutting research in a range of disciplines. Assessments of past research and coordination activities as well as communication of (unpublished) advances in interdisciplinary, integrated Arctic science will engage the research community and lead to new findings and insights. Synergy derived from enhanced coordination of cross-disciplinary and international research activities will lead to new perspectives on overarching research questions which in turn are likely to lead to new discoveries.

Broader impacts: The project activities help the US research community and SEARCH partner agencies in developing a coordinated and effective response to the challenges and opportunities associated with rapid arctic environmental and socio-economic change. In particular, the project works to support the SEARCH effort in providing a scientific foundation to help society understand and respond to a rapidly changing Arctic, leading to decision-making informed by an understanding of arctic environmental change.

Unprecedented thinning and retreat of the Arctic sea ice cover together with recent climate modeling studies that predict the Arctic could be free or nearly free of sea ice in summertime within the next few decades have raised concern for the future of Arctic ice-­associated marine mammals. All species of ice-dependent marine mammals of Beringia have been subject to petitions to designate them as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Accordingly, in 2008, the polar bear was listed as threatened after the U.S Fish and Wildlife Service [2008] found that ?polar bear habitat - principally sea ice - is declining throughout the species? range?. The case for the Pacific walrus is under review with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Endangered Species Program and two ice seal species have been proposed for protective status. A major challenge facing these national policy decisions is lack of information concerning the extent and distribution of critical habitat within the overall ice pack. Most climate models and standard sea ice data products provide ice extent and concentration information, but these quantities only partially explain the distribution of Arctic marine mammals. The size and shape of ice floes and openings has also been shown to be important, but there are currently no standardized means of monitoring these properties of the sea ice cover.

The work proposed here aims to develop new, powerful video processing techniques and bring them to bear on the problem of identifying and quantifying critical habitat areas within the Arctic ice pack. The project team brings together scientists and engineers with expertise in advanced image and video analysis and modeling, computational science, sea ice geophysics and marine mammal ecology. The research plan is centered on a computational-thinking approach to transforming high-volume video data into low-volume high-relevance information that is key to decision support in a range of settings. The overall aim is to develop and implement advanced video processing algorithms based on geophysical and ecological knowledge of sea ice to routinely map marine mammal habitat in ice covered waters. Data from the system will be disseminated to a cyber-enabled forum of experts, who will aid in habitat interpretation and provide guidance for data acquisition. The project will build on existing cyber-enabled forums such as the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO, co-organized by Eicken) as models for implementation. The techniques that will be developed will be readily extendible to other observing tasks such as marine hazard identification. Such information will become increasingly important in the near future with growing commercial activity and limited decision-making and support infrastructure in the Arctic. A readily-deployable, networkable system will allow increased marine traffic in the Arctic to be turned to an advantage.

This project is supported by the NSF Directorate for Geosciences and the Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR).

This ArcSEES proposal for the North Slope Arctic Scenarios Project (NASP) involves multiple organizations and stakeholders across the North Slope and Northwest Arctic Boroughs in partnership with UAF, NSSI, ION, and ANTHC. Faculty members, students, and a broad range of experts drawn from stakeholder communities will collaborate to explore options for sustainable development in the North. NASP employs proven and advanced approaches to engage North Slope communities in developing and analyzing scenarios visions for the future and plausible pathways - for effective strategic planning and implementation of policy. NASP develops products and applies new tools at the intersection of climate model output, information products from observing networks, and different knowledge systems to facilitate sustainable healthy communities. NASP will identify key uncertainties and indicator variables for specific scenarios (i) translating them into guidance for optimization of Arctic observing systems, and (ii) synthesizing scenarios-derived findings, variables and spatially explicit scenarios and climate model projections using the NSSI geospatial data framework for stakeholder planning. The project explicitly fosters the emergence of communities of practice (CoPs), engages teachers and students at the secondary and tertiary level, and generates scientific deliverables that contribute to improved understanding and observations of Arctic change.

Recent major changes in the extent, thickness and properties of arctic sea ice have captured attention and posed significant challenges to a diverse group of stakeholders, ranging from maritime safety and security, resource management and development, politicians, coastal communities, weather and climate forecasters, climate change researchers, and a growing segment of the general public. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal-to-interannual timescales, especially over the summer and into fall, is of particular interest. Though each stakeholder is driven by different priorities, all require improved monitoring, prediction, and communication of sea ice conditions. To date, sea ice modeling efforts have largely focused on climate scales (i.e., response to greenhouse gas forcing) or targeted synoptic forecasting in support of navigation. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal scales is a challenge because of: (1) high variability in atmospheric and oceanic influence, (2) observations for initialization and validation have limited coverage and/or high uncertainties, (3) limitations of current model capabilities, (4) inherent limitations in sea ice predictability, and (5) an Arctic system changing in ways without recent historical precedent.

The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook was implemented four years ago in an ad hoc fashion, requesting voluntary contributions to estimate September sea ice extent based on late spring (June 1) conditions. Contributions have been made using different methods that vary from complex (partially- and fully- coupled general circulation models and statistical relationships) to basic (trend extrapolation, heuristic, public poll). The Outlook will be organized and expanded into a more structured, coordinated and formal effort that focuses on tackling key barriers to sea ice forecasting, including rigorous evaluation of predictions, coordination and organization of relevant observations for initialization, evaluation of methods, and finally, an organizational network structure to manage the efforts and communicate results in new ways. This effort builds on the experience of the past four years and expands on structures already in place, leveraging resources and expertise at an international scale to help address a set of challenges recognized as priorities by a range of U.S. and international programs and organizations.

Intellectual Merit - This project advances NSF?s goal of providing improved predictive tools for the Arctic by creating an innovative network of scientists and stakeholders to generate, assess and communicate arctic seasonal sea ice forecasts. The network?s focus is to develop new methods to evaluate forecasts, new metrics for synthesis and comparison across forecast methods and new approaches to initialize forecast methods with targeted observations. Finally, the network will investigate how different forecasting methods can be combined to exceed predictive skills of narrower approaches. The research team will explore how best to plan observations for improved seasonal predictions and how these predictions in turn can advance understanding of the evolving state of the arctic sea ice cover.

Broader Impacts - Improved seasonal forecasts of arctic sea ice will be developed and disseminated for societal benefit. By fostering and coordinating an international network of researchers and leveraging a broad range of activities, the project provides information tailored to stakeholders? needs. In addition to rigorous evaluations of stakeholder information needs, the network will develop a common reference framework for key sea ice variables and predictors, generating integrated datasets and predicted fields for the scientific community and stakeholders. Activities will also be initiated to inform and engage the growing internet communities of citizen scientists, many of whom already show a strong interest in arctic science, have capabilities for their own original and potentially worthwhile analysis, and connect with wider networks of media and public discussion. The activities will include graduate students and post-docs who are mentored to conduct high-quality research at the intersection of fundamental and applied research. By entraining more young researchers into the network, the project also addresses an important need for qualified experts that can help address urgent questions concerning resource uses and ecosystem services impacted by rapid arctic sea ice change.

The Arctic is undergoing dramatic, accelerating environmental change, resulting in impacts on local, regional and global scales. Improved understanding of the present and probable future state of the arctic environment is important for a wide range of stakeholders, including arctic residents, the private sector, agencies and decision-makers. To develop and convey this understanding to decision makers, an interdisciplinary research program is needed that engages with stakeholders to provide science-based answers to stakeholder questions, and the Study of Arctic Environmental Change (SEARCH) is well positioned to serve this function. This project will build a support structure to enable SEARCH to serve the needs of the scientific community and agencies. The new research coordination structure will coordinate science, exchange knowledge and tools between science and stakeholders, drive scientific syntheses, and connect scientists and stakeholders to answer questions about arctic change. The new structure will ensure that its activities have societal benefit, and foster two-way communication of research findings and information needs. Proposed activities include knowledge exchange workshops that will facilitate networking between stakeholders and scientists, and stakeholders will be included in other synthesis research activities, meetings and conferences. A set of activities focused on the theme "Arctic Futures 2050" will frame scientific findings in a way that can help decision-makers plan for the future. All of these activities will lead to development of research products that address societal priorities and can help inform policy.

SEARCH will facilitate research in response to scientific priorities and stakeholder questions about complex arctic change. This project will improve understanding, advance prediction, and explore the consequences of changing arctic sea ice; document and improve understanding of how degradation of near-surface permafrost will affect arctic and global systems; and improve predictions of future land-ice loss and its impacts on sea level. An additional overarching goal will be to analyze societal and policy implications of these arctic environmental changes, and a set of activities will be undertaken to integrate findings across all the thematic goals. These goals will be achieved by facilitating research across disciplines, scales and among agencies; advancing scientific synthesis of data, model output and expert projections; creating networks of people and research groups that promote efficiencies and scientific discovery; developing tools useful to stakeholders and decision-makers; and enhancing research coordination.

Sea ice is a major component of the polar oceans. It serves as an important platform for the accumulation and transport of dissolved and particulate material, retained in the sea ice cover via atmospheric deposition, fluid exchange with the underlying ocean, sediment inclusions, and biological activity. This material, including nutrients, serves key functions in the Arctic Ocean ecosystem. However, the influence of sea ice processes on nutrient cycling and the seasonal cycle of important biogeochemical processes is poorly understood, especially as related to changes in Arctic sea ice. This project will quantify and track changes in the inventory and fluxes of key biogeochemical and physical parameters above, within and below the sea ice through a full year. Data collection and numerical simulations will improve modeling of key processes and projections of future states of the Arctic Ocean and its role in the Earth system.

The planed Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) project provides an opportunity to address pressing scientific questions revolving around the rapid transformations underway in Arctic marine physical and biogeochemical environments, linked to major losses in summer sea ice. This study contributes to the broader MOSAiC goals set by the research community, focusing on improved understanding and prediction of the Arctic through improved sea ice/ocean and earth system model parameterizations of key physical and biogeochemical processes. Collection of biogeochemical and physical data over an annual cycle at MOSAiC's central Arctic drifting ice camp will be informed by modeling needs, and apply community-endorsed standards and best practices for sample acquisition, processing and analysis. Field measurements and sampling will be closely coordinated with the MOSAiC team, with broad, rapid data sharing to inform field studies and modeling work. The extended observation period is essential to improve model parameterizations of snow-ice-ocean cycling of macro- and micronutrients and their impacts on Arctic ecosystems. This project will collect standardized ice data that are directly comparable with those of other participants and that are guided by and improve model simulations and projections.

This field effort will greatly enhance our understanding of sea ice seasonal cycles, including physical and biogeochemical seasonal evolution. Standardized field data will be made available to a broad international community. This project will leverage previously developed sampling schemes, protocols, custom-made equipment and a biogeochemical model as a strategic US contribution to the vast investment put forth by the international community towards the MOSAiC expedition. Educational impacts include the training and support of a graduate student and a postdoctoral researcher. These individuals will participate in the expedition and gain experience in standardized sea ice collection and multidisciplinary collaboration. Science communication to larger audience will be accomplished through annual participation in "Bering Sea Days", a 5-day event on the Pribilof Island of St. Paul, a detailed blog featuring field experiences and science, and a self-published book that depicts our field experiences targeting K-6 audiences.

NSFGEO-NERC Collaborative Research: Advancing Predictability of Sea Ice: Phase 2 of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN2)

The shrinking Arctic sea-ice cover has captured the attention of the world. A downward September trend has accelerated over the last decade, with the 10 lowest September sea-ice extents occurring in the last 10 years. An essentially ice-free Arctic during summer is expected by mid-century. Loss of the sea- ice cover has profound consequences for ecosystems and human activities in the Arctic, so there is an urgent need to advance sea-ice predictions in all seasons at both the pan-Arctic and regional scales. A better quantification of the role of oceanic heat and climate variations in the Pacific sector, new observational-based sea-ice products, and network activities will advance understanding of seasonal predictability of Arctic sea ice, the limits of this predictability, and the economic value of forecasts for stakeholders. The network supported by this grant will examine origins and impacts of extreme ocean surface warming in preconditioning the ice cover in the Pacific Arctic for continued major reductions in sea-ice extent and duration.

A key finding that emerged from the earlier Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) effort is that predictions of September sea-ice extent tend to have less skill in extreme years that strongly depart from the trend line. The objective of proposed research under Phase 2 of SIPN (SIPN2) is to improve forecast skill through adopting a multi-disciplinary approach that includes modeling, new products, data analysis, scientific networks, and stakeholder engagement. This grant will: Investigate the sensitivity of subseasonal-to-seasonal sea-ice predictability in the Alaska Arctic to variations in oceanic heat and large- scale atmospheric forcing using a dynamical model Community Earth System Model (NCAR CESM) and statistical forecasting tools, focusing on spatial fields in addition to total extent summaries; Assess the accuracy of Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) submissions based on methodology and initialization; Develop new observation-based products for improving sea-ice predictions, including sea-ice thickness, surface roughness, melt ponds, and snow depth; Evaluate the socio-economic value of sea-ice forecasts to stakeholders who manage ship traffic and coastal village resupply in the Alaska Sector, and engage the public in Arctic climate and sea-ice prediction through blog exchanges, accessible SIO reports, bi-monthly webinars, and by making public data sources useful to non-scientists and scientists alike; and Continue and evolve network activities to generate SIO forecasts and reporting for September minima as in SIPN and expand SIPN2 forecasts to include full spatial resolution and emerging ice-anomaly-months (October - November).

This work will directly engage stakeholders that create and use sea-ice forecasts in Alaska and lead to improved safety around sea ice. Work under SIPN2 will also track public awareness and perceptions regarding sea ice, helping to raise understanding through accessible reports, discussions, and public data sources useful to non-scientists and scientists alike. Stakeholder engagement during the research process will potentially facilitate rapid research-to-operations implementation of the products of this work.

Accurate knowledge of sea ice thickness over large scales is crucial for understanding the current and future states of the Arctic ice cover, and for near- and long-term predictions of Arctic marine environments. With the Arctic ice pack undergoing a major transition from perennial to seasonal ice, ice thickness - more so than ice extent - is a key variable describing the state and evolution of the ice-ocean system. However, methods of observing sea ice thickness at regional or basin scales with sufficient accuracy and resolution to capture growth and melt processes, detect hazards, or assess habitat quality are lacking. This project will develop an Airborne electromagnetic (AEM) snow radar system capable of being integrated into long-range Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). This will allow acquisition of basin-scale ice thickness and snow depth data as part of a network for Arctic observations that addresses information needs of researchers, local communities and industry. This MRI development project will contribute to NSF's Navigating the New Arctic Big Idea.

AEM methods offer a novel means of measuring sea ice thickness over the full range of thicknesses found in the Polar Regions. By remotely sensing the positions of the upper and lower surfaces of the ice cover, AEM measurements typically achieve an accuracy of better than 10% of the total thickness, with less sensitivity to uncertainties in snow cover or sea surface topography. Development and commissioning of the Long-range Airborne Snow and Sea Ice Thickness Observing System (LASSITOS) will also provide opportunities for education and training, including capstone projects for the University of Alaska Fairbanks' new minor in aeronautical engineering and student involvement in comprehensive calibration/validation field activities. LASSITOS is expected to generate interest among native students from coastal villages in northern Alaska, who represent another key stakeholder group for sea ice information. The leader of this project is an early-career researcher.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.