Timothy DelSole - Publications

Affiliations: 
George Mason University, Washington, DC 
Area:
Atmospheric Sciences, Statistics

95 high-probability publications. We are testing a new system for linking publications to authors. You can help! If you notice any inaccuracies, please sign in and mark papers as correct or incorrect matches. If you identify any major omissions or other inaccuracies in the publication list, please let us know.

Year Citation  Score
2021 Risbey JS, Squire DT, Black AS, DelSole T, Lepore C, Matear RJ, Monselesan DP, Moore TS, Richardson D, Schepen A, Tippett MK, Tozer CR. Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading. Nature Communications. 12: 4346. PMID 34272363 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23771-z  0.33
2020 DelSole T, Tippett MK. Comparing climate time series – Part 1: Univariate test Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography. 6: 159-175. DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-6-159-2020  0.359
2020 Smith DM, Eade R, Scaife AA, Caron L, Danabasoglu G, DelSole TM, Delworth T, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Dunstone NJ, Hermanson L, Kharin V, Kimoto M, Merryfield WJ, Mochizuki T, Müller WA, et al. Author Correction: Robust skill of decadal climate predictions Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 3. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0118-0  0.312
2020 Trenary L, DelSole T, Tippett MK. Comparing Methods of Uncertainty Estimation in Optimal Fingerprinting Geophysical Research Letters. 47. DOI: 10.1029/2020Gl088060  0.324
2019 Tippett MK, Ranganathan M, L'Heureux M, Barnston AG, DelSole T. Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble. Climate Dynamics. 53: 7497-7518. PMID 31929688 DOI: 10.1007/S00382-017-3721-Y  0.473
2019 Buckley MW, DelSole T, Lozier MS, Li L. Predictability of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Upper-Ocean Heat Content Journal of Climate. 32: 3005-3023. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-18-0509.1  0.444
2019 Pegion K, Kirtman BP, Becker E, Collins DC, LaJoie E, Burgman R, Bell R, DelSole T, Min D, Zhu Y, Li W, Sinsky E, Guan H, Gottschalck J, Metzger EJ, et al. The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 100: 2043-2060. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-18-0270.1  0.503
2019 Smith DM, Eade R, Scaife AA, Caron L, Danabasoglu G, DelSole TM, Delworth T, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Dunstone NJ, Hermanson L, Kharin V, Kimoto M, Merryfield WJ, Mochizuki T, Müller WA, et al. Robust skill of decadal climate predictions Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y  0.431
2019 DelSole T, Trenary L, Yan X, Tippett MK. Confidence intervals in optimal fingerprinting Climate Dynamics. 52: 4111-4126. DOI: 10.1007/S00382-018-4356-3  0.424
2019 Pegion K, DelSole T, Becker E, Cicerone T. Assessing the fidelity of predictability estimates Climate Dynamics. 53: 7251-7265. DOI: 10.1007/S00382-017-3903-7  0.498
2018 Trenary L, DelSole T, Tippett MK, Pegion K. Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 10: 1074-1086. PMID 29937973 DOI: 10.1002/2017Ms001204  0.403
2018 Bombardi RJ, Trenary L, Pegion K, Cash B, DelSole T, Kinter JL. Seasonal Predictability of Summer Rainfall over South America Journal of Climate. 31: 8181-8195. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-18-0191.1  0.429
2018 Tippett MK, Trenary L, DelSole T, Pegion K, L’Heureux ML. Sources of Bias in the Monthly CFSv2 Forecast Climatology Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 57: 1111-1122. DOI: 10.1175/Jamc-D-17-0299.1  0.464
2018 DelSole T, Tippett MK. Predictability in a changing climate Climate Dynamics. 51: 531-545. DOI: 10.1007/S00382-017-3939-8  0.494
2017 DelSole T, Trenary L, Tippett MK. The Weighted-Average Lagged Ensemble. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 9: 2739-2752. PMID 29399270 DOI: 10.1002/2017Ms001128  0.341
2017 Trenary L, DelSole T, Tippett MK, Pegion K. A new method for determining the optimal lagged ensemble. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 9: 291-306. PMID 28580050 DOI: 10.1002/2016Ms000838  0.424
2017 Srivastava A, DelSole T. Decadal predictability without ocean dynamics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. PMID 28193900 DOI: 10.1073/Pnas.1614085114  0.486
2017 DelSole T, Trenary L, Tippett MK, Pegion K. Predictability of Week-3–4 Average Temperature and Precipitation over the Contiguous United States Journal of Climate. 30: 3499-3512. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-16-0567.1  0.517
2017 DelSole T, Banerjee A. Statistical Seasonal Prediction Based on Regularized Regression Journal of Climate. 30: 1345-1361. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-16-0249.1  0.511
2017 DelSole T. Decadal Prediction of Temperature: Achievements and Future Prospects Current Climate Change Reports. 3: 99-111. DOI: 10.1007/s40641-017-0066-x  0.308
2016 DelSole T, Tippett MK. Forecast Comparison Based on Random Walks Monthly Weather Review. 144: 615-626. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-15-0218.1  0.423
2016 Trenary L, DelSole T. Does the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Get Its Predictability from the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Journal of Climate. 29: 5267-5280. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-16-0030.1  0.524
2016 LaJoie E, DelSole T. Changes in Internal Variability due to Anthropogenic Forcing: A New Field Significance Test Journal of Climate. 29: 5547-5560. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-15-0718.1  0.433
2016 Yan X, DelSole T, Tippett MK. What Surface Observations Are Important for Separating the Influences of Anthropogenic Aerosols from Other Forcings Journal of Climate. 29: 4165-4184. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-15-0667.1  0.376
2016 DelSole T, Yan X, Tippett MK. Inferring Aerosol Cooling from Hydrological Sensitivity Journal of Climate. 29: 6167-6178. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-15-0364.1  0.462
2016 Trenary L, DelSole T, Tippett MK, Doty B. Extreme Eastern U.S. Winter of 2015 Not Symptomatic of Climate Change Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 97. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-16-0156.1  0.311
2015 DelSole T, Tippett MK. Laplacian Eigenfunctions for Climate Analysis Journal of Climate. 28: 7420-7436. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-15-0049.1  0.347
2014 DelSole T, Tippett MK. Comparing Forecast Skill Monthly Weather Review. 142: 4658-4678. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-14-00045.1  0.385
2014 Srivastava AK, DelSole T. Robust Forced Response in South Asian Summer Monsoon in a Future Climate Journal of Climate. 27: 7849-7860. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00599.1  0.421
2014 Tippett MK, DelSole T, Barnston AG. Reliability of Regression-Corrected Climate Forecasts Journal of Climate. 27: 3393-3404. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00565.1  0.458
2014 Feng X, DelSole T, Houser P. Comparison of Seasonal Potential Predictability of Precipitation Journal of Climate. 27: 4094-4110. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00489.1  0.643
2014 Jia L, DelSole T, Tippett MK. Can Optimal Projection Improve Dynamical Model Forecasts Journal of Climate. 27: 2643-2655. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00232.1  0.657
2014 DelSole T, Yan X, Dirmeyer PA, Fennessy M, Altshuler E. Changes in Seasonal Predictability due to Global Warming Journal of Climate. 27: 300-311. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00026.1  0.515
2014 Kumar S, Dirmeyer PA, Lawrence DM, Delsole T, Altshuler EL, Cash BA, Fennessy MJ, Guo Z, Kinter JL, Straus DM. Effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal soil moisture and temperature predictability in North America and in changing climate simulated by CCSM4 Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres. 119: 13250-13270. DOI: 10.1002/2014Jd022110  0.52
2014 DelSole T, Nattala J, Tippett MK. Skill improvement from increased ensemble size and model diversity Geophysical Research Letters. 41: 7331-7342. DOI: 10.1002/2014Gl060133  0.414
2013 Tippett MK, DelSole T. Constructed Analogs and Linear Regression Monthly Weather Review. 141: 2519-2525. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-12-00223.1  0.356
2013 DelSole T, Feng X. The “Shukla–Gutzler” Method for Estimating Potential Seasonal Predictability Monthly Weather Review. 141: 822-831. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-12-00007.1  0.586
2013 DelSole T, Jia L, Tippett MK. Scale-Selective Ridge Regression for Multimodel Forecasting Journal of Climate. 26: 7957-7965. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00030.1  0.693
2013 Dirmeyer PA, Kumar S, Fennessy MJ, Altshuler EL, Delsole T, Guo Z, Cash BA, Straus D. Model estimates of land-driven predictability in a changing climate from CCSM4 Journal of Climate. 26: 8495-8512. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00029.1  0.526
2013 Yang X, Rosati A, Zhang S, Delworth TL, Gudgel RG, Zhang R, Vecchi G, Anderson W, Chang Ys, Delsole T, Dixon K, Msadek R, Stern WF, Wittenberg A, Zeng F. A predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system Journal of Climate. 26: 650-661. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00231.1  0.519
2013 DelSole T, Yang X, Tippett MK. Is unequal weighting significantly better than equal weighting for multi-model forecasting? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 139: 176-183. DOI: 10.1002/Qj.1961  0.358
2013 Feng X, DelSole T, Houser P. Comparison of statistical estimates of potential seasonal predictability Journal of Geophysical Research. 118: 6002-6016. DOI: 10.1002/Jgrd.50498  0.646
2013 Kumar S, Dirmeyer PA, Merwade V, Delsole T, Adams JM, Niyogi D. Land use/cover change impacts in CMIP5 climate simulations: A new methodology and 21st century challenges Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres. 118: 6337-6353. DOI: 10.1002/Jgrd.50463  0.399
2013 DelSole T, Kumar A, Jha B. Potential seasonal predictability: Comparison between empirical and dynamical model estimates Geophysical Research Letters. 40: 3200-3206. DOI: 10.1002/Grl.50581  0.546
2013 DelSole T, Jia L, Tippett MK. Decadal prediction of observed and simulated sea surface temperatures Geophysical Research Letters. 40: 2773-2778. DOI: 10.1002/Grl.50185  0.726
2012 Yilmaz MT, Delsole T. Reducing water imbalance in land data assimilation: Ensemble filtering without perturbed observations Journal of Hydrometeorology. 13: 413-420. DOI: 10.1175/Jhm-D-11-010.1  0.308
2012 Guo Z, Dirmeyer PA, Delsole T, Koster RD. Rebound in atmospheric predictability and the role of the land surface Journal of Climate. 25: 4744-4749. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00651.1  0.456
2012 Jia L, DelSole T. Optimal Determination of Time-Varying Climate Change Signals Journal of Climate. 25: 7122-7137. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00434.1  0.682
2012 Feng X, Delsole T, Houser P. A Method for Estimating Potential Seasonal Predictability: Analysis of Covariance Journal of Climate. 25: 5292-5308. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00342.1  0.669
2012 Yang X, DelSole T. Systematic Comparison of ENSO Teleconnection Patterns between Models and Observations Journal of Climate. 25: 425-446. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00175.1  0.501
2012 Jia L, DelSole T. Multi-year predictability of temperature and precipitation in multiple climate models Geophysical Research Letters. 39. DOI: 10.1029/2012Gl052778  0.724
2012 Delsole T, Shukla J. Climate models produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall Geophysical Research Letters. 39. DOI: 10.1029/2012Gl051279  0.552
2011 Dirmeyer PA, DelSole T, Zhao M. Limits to the Impact of Empirical Correction on Simulation of the Water Cycle Journal of Hydrometeorology. 12: 650-662. DOI: 10.1175/2011Jhm1348.1  0.392
2011 Jia L, DelSole T. Diagnosis of Multiyear Predictability on Continental Scales Journal of Climate. 24: 5108-5124. DOI: 10.1175/2011Jcli4098.1  0.714
2011 DelSole T, Tippett MK, Shukla J. A Significant Component of Unforced Multidecadal Variability in the Recent Acceleration of Global Warming Journal of Climate. 24: 909-926. DOI: 10.1175/2010Jcli3659.1  0.43
2011 Guo Z, Dirmeyer PA, DelSole T. Land surface impacts on subseasonal and seasonal predictability Geophysical Research Letters. 38. DOI: 10.1029/2011Gl049945  0.463
2011 Feng X, DelSole T, Houser P. Bootstrap estimated seasonal potential predictability of global temperature and precipitation Geophysical Research Letters. 38. DOI: 10.1029/2010Gl046511  0.651
2010 Delsole T, Shukla J. Model fidelity versus skill in seasonal forecasting Journal of Climate. 23: 4794-4806. DOI: 10.1175/2010Jcli3164.1  0.408
2010 Tippett MK, Barnston AG, DelSole T. Comments on “Finite Samples and Uncertainty Estimates for Skill Measures for Seasonal Prediction” Monthly Weather Review. 138: 1487-1493. DOI: 10.1175/2009Mwr3214.1  0.45
2010 Yilmaz MT, DelSole T. Predictability of seasonal precipitation using joint probabilities Journal of Hydrometeorology. 11: 533-541. DOI: 10.1175/2009Jhm1187.1  0.488
2010 DelSole T, Yang X. State and parameter estimation in stochastic dynamical models Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena. 239: 1781-1788. DOI: 10.1016/J.Physd.2010.06.001  0.357
2009 DelSole T, Zhao M, Dirmeyer P. A New Method for Exploring Coupled Land–Atmosphere Dynamics Journal of Hydrometeorology. 10: 1040-1050. DOI: 10.1175/2009Jhm1071.1  0.413
2009 Narapusetty B, Delsole T, Tippett MK. Optimal estimation of the climatological mean Journal of Climate. 22: 4845-4859. DOI: 10.1175/2009Jcli2944.1  0.455
2009 DelSole T, Shukla J. Artificial skill due to predictor screening Journal of Climate. 22: 331-345. DOI: 10.1175/2008Jcli2414.1  0.476
2009 DelSole T, Tippett MK. Average Predictability Time. Part II: Seamless Diagnoses of Predictability on Multiple Time Scales Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 66: 1188-1204. DOI: 10.1175/2008Jas2869.1  0.484
2009 DelSole T, Tippett MK. Average Predictability Time. Part I: Theory Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 66: 1172-1187. DOI: 10.1175/2008Jas2868.1  0.449
2009 Dirmeyer PA, Brubaker KL, DelSole T. Import and export of atmospheric water vapor between nations Journal of Hydrology. 365: 11-22. DOI: 10.1016/J.Jhydrol.2008.11.016  0.34
2008 Yang X, DelSole T, Pan H. Empirical Correction of the NCEP Global Forecast System Monthly Weather Review. 136: 5224-5233. DOI: 10.1175/2008Mwr2527.1  0.412
2008 DelSole T, Zhao M, Dirmeyer PA, Kirtman BP. Empirical correction of a Coupled Land-Atmosphere Model Monthly Weather Review. 136: 4063-4076. DOI: 10.1175/2008Mwr2344.1  0.407
2008 Tippett MK, DelSole T, Mason SJ, Barnston AG. Regression-based methods for finding coupled patterns Journal of Climate. 21: 4384-4398. DOI: 10.1175/2008Jcli2150.1  0.458
2008 DelSole T, Tippett MK. Predictable Components and Singular Vectors Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 65: 1666-1678. DOI: 10.1175/2007Jas2401.1  0.414
2008 Yang X, Delsole T. Using the ensemble Kalman filter to estimate multiplicative model parameters Tellus A. 61: 601-609. DOI: 10.1111/J.1600-0870.2009.00407.X  0.362
2007 Vikhliaev Y, Schopf P, Delsole T, Kirtman B. Finding multiple basin modes in a linear ocean model Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. 24: 1033-1049. DOI: 10.1175/Jtech2020.1  0.31
2007 DelSole T. A Bayesian Framework for Multimodel Regression Journal of Climate. 20: 2810-2826. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli4179.1  0.441
2007 DelSole T, Tippett MK. Predictability: Recent insights from information theory Reviews of Geophysics. 45. DOI: 10.1029/2006Rg000202  0.493
2006 DelSole T. Low-Frequency Variations of Surface Temperature in Observations and Simulations Journal of Climate. 19: 4487-4507. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli3879.1  0.389
2006 DelSole T, Shukla J. Specification of wintertime North American surface temperature Journal of Climate. 19: 2691-2716. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli3704.1  0.49
2006 Shukla J, DelSole T, Fennessy M, Kinter J, Paolino D. Climate model fidelity and projections of climate change Geophysical Research Letters. 33. DOI: 10.1029/2005Gl025579  0.434
2005 DelSole T. Predictability and Information Theory. Part II: Imperfect Forecasts Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 62: 3368-3381. DOI: 10.1175/Jas3522.1  0.479
2004 DelSole T. Predictability and Information Theory. Part I: Measures of Predictability Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 61: 2425-2440. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<2425:Paitpi>2.0.Co;2  0.379
2004 Chang P, Saravanan R, DelSole T, Wang F. Predictability of Linear Coupled Systems. Part I: Theoretical Analyses Journal of Climate. 17: 1474-1486. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1474:Polcsp>2.0.Co;2  0.49
2004 Delsole T. Stochastic Models of Quasigeostrophic Turbulence Surveys in Geophysics. 25: 107-149. DOI: 10.1023/B:Geop.0000028160.75549.0D  0.384
2003 DelSole T, Chang P. Predictable Component Analysis, Canonical Correlation Analysis, and Autoregressive Models Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 60: 409-416. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0409:Pcacca>2.0.Co;2  0.478
2002 Delsole T. Entropy as a basis for comparing and blending forecasts Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 128: 2469-2496. DOI: 10.1256/Qj.01.176  0.503
2002 DelSole T, Shukla J. Linear Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall Journal of Climate. 15: 3645-3658. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<3645:Lpoimr>2.0.Co;2  0.478
2001 DelSole T. A Theory for the Forcing and Dissipation in Stochastic Turbulence Models Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 58: 3762-3775. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<3762:Atftfa>2.0.Co;2  0.323
2001 DelSole T. A Simple Model for Transient Eddy Momentum Fluxes in the Upper Troposphere Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 58: 3019-3035. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<3019:Asmfte>2.0.Co;2  0.352
2001 DelSole T. Optimally Persistent Patterns in Time-Varying Fields Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 58: 1341-1356. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<1341:Oppitv>2.0.Co;2  0.348
2000 DelSole T. A Fundamental Limitation of Markov Models Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 57: 2158-2168. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<2158:Aflomm>2.0.Co;2  0.349
1999 DelSole T, Hou AY. Empirical Correction of a Dynamical Model. Part I: Fundamental Issues Monthly Weather Review. 127: 2533-2545. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<2533:Ecoadm>2.0.Co;2  0.406
1999 DelSole T. Stochastic Models of Shear-Flow Turbulence with Enstrophy Transfer to Subgrid Scales Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 56: 3692-3703. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<3692:Smosft>2.0.Co;2  0.314
1999 DelSole T, Hou AY. Empirical Stochastic Models for the Dominant Climate Statistics of a General Circulation Model Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 56: 3436-3456. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<3436:Esmftd>2.0.Co;2  0.428
1996 Delsole T, Farrell BF. The quasi-linear equilibration of a thermally maintained, stochastically excited jet in a quasigeostrophic model Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 53: 1781-1797. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<1781:Tqleoa>2.0.Co;2  0.346
1996 DelSole T. Can Quasigeostrophic Turbulence Be Modeled Stochastically Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 53: 1617-1633. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<1617:Cqtbms>2.0.Co;2  0.347
1995 DelSole T, Farrell BF. A Stochastically Excited Linear System as a Model for Quasigeostrophic Turbulence:Analytic Results for One- and Two-Layer Fluids Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 52: 2531-2547. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<2531:Aselsa>2.0.Co;2  0.352
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